Editorial: Time For A New Deal, Leesburg Today, January 15, 2015

It is the dawn of a new year, and, for Loudouners, that means it’s time to renew their futile protests against plans to ratchet up toll rates on the Dulles Greenway.

It’s an annual exercise in frustration that is no closer to resolution today than a decade ago.

The dance is a familiar one. Members of the county’s General Assembly delegation join area residents in expressing outrage that the State Corporation Commission would even consider yet another toll increase. Then SCC leaders respond that their hands are tied because the General Assembly has ordered the annual toll hike be approved.

Over the years, the General Assembly has done a good job of noting the many community problems caused by high toll rates, but it has failed to address any of them. However, residents should clearly understand that no other body can solve them.

The financial impacts of high tolls and the lack of distance pricing on area families is fairly obvious. The community impact of commuters avoiding the freeway and clogging neighborhood streets each morning and afternoon has been frequently discussed. Even safety concerns about having construction traffic and large trucks bypassing the highway have been repeatedly cited.

Perhaps they are merely local concerns that don’t resonate with General Assembly members.

How about an issue that should? Economic impact.

Click here for this editorial's look at the economic impact.

There is nothing in this editorial that hasn't also been said about the planned huge increases in the Dulles Toll Road tolls (now set for 2018 since the state coughed up $300 million to keep them down for a few years) to help cover the debt service payments for the Silver Line.

In the end, it will be the economic impact that drives the General Assembly to make a change, but--if history is any lesson--probably not until it is too late.  And we're getting there rather quickly as the cutbacks in federal spending have meant low to no growth in the area already and, therefore, no/low growth in county and state tax revenues.  Yet local and state governments want to spend more without raising or adding new taxes.  It won't work. 

Hold on to your seats, we're in for a bumpy economic ride.   

Editorial: The Post’s View: The Silver Line’s long, hard slog, Washington Post, March 23, 2014

In what appears to be a more circumspect and far more optimistic version of what we wrote on Friday, the Washington Post Editorial Board today laments the sorry state of affairs in the completion of Phase 1 of the Silver Line.  Here is how the Post begins:

THERE WERE two significant pieces of news last month about Metro’s Silver Line extension to Dulles International Airport, one of the nation’s biggest infrastructure projects, and together they could give Northern Virginia commuters whiplash.

First came the good news: The project’s $2.7 billion second phase — 12 miles of rail running from Reston to the airport and into Loudoun County — is likely to receive almost $1.9 billion in federal loans on highly favorable terms, a critical component of the hoped-for financing for a project that broke ground last year.

Then came the bad news: Completion of the project’s $2.9 billion first phase, 11 miles of rail from East Falls Church to Reston, would be delayed. Again. . .

Near the end of the editorial, the Post goes out on a fact-free, rose-colored limb (to mix our metaphors):

Like all soap operas, this one will end — with passengers boarding Silver Line trains no later than June, we hope. That’s months later than officials had expected even a year ago, and it will cost Metro millions of dollars in lost revenue.

First, let's acknowledge a straightforward accounting error in the Post's assessment of "lost revenue":  While WMATA forecasts the Silver Line will generate about $2 million per month once it is in operation, the Post repeatedly has ignored the fact that Metrorail's operating costs exceed revenues by about half--or about $1 million per month for a new Silver LIne if WMATA's revenue forecast is accurate.  So, for every month the Silver Line is in operation, Metro will--in fact--lose about one million dollars.  And, yes, the taxpayers of the WMATA jurisdictions will be making up the difference as they have for decades.  Failure to acknowledge this important financial fact reflects badly on the Post and its editorial.

More importantly, the "hope" expressed here that passengers will be riding the Silver Line "no later June" is absurd to  the point of being dangerous in setting not just unrealistic, but impossible, expectations for the beginning of Silver Line revenue operations.  First, as the Post observes, MWAA and DTP can't even agree on what needs to be done--and who needs to pay for it.  Little, if any, work has been done in the month since the Silver Line failed to meet MWAA's (& WMATA's) standards for "substantial completion."  DTP says they don't even know what needs to be done.  Second, that work will takes a number of weeks, if not months, to complete--including the speaker replacement, repairing the ATC system (again--or still), and fixing whatever the track gage problem is.  Then, third, when the line achieves "substantial completion,"  WMATA has another 90 days to test the line itself and train its operators.  Given the dubious work on the project to date, we would expect WMATA to be especially diligent in its testing and training, using just about all the 90 days it has at its disposal.

We believe that Hunter Mill Supervisor Cathy Hudgins' assessment that the line should be done by late summer or she will be "very disappointed" is probably more realistic.  And we certainly believe it is possible that the start of revenue operations will be postponed until 2015 given the sorry state of relations between MWAA and DTP in trying to bring the project up to acceptable standards. 

And, to reiterate, we want the Silver Line completed and operational as soon as it is safe to do so.  We also do not want any of the entities financing this $3 billion project--especially Dulles Toll Road users--to be socked with extra charges because of the inept handling of the construction and management of this important transportation infrastructure. 

WOW! Editorial: Metro continues to aggravate its riders, Washington Post, June 9, 2013

By Editorial Board, Published: June 9

LIKE CHARON piloting his lifeless charges along the River Styx, a darkened Metro train rumbled through the Tenleytown-American University Red Line station early last Tuesday morning, its windows black, its destination unknown. Although it never stopped for the passengers waiting forlornly on the platform, it did emit an ear-splitting horn blast.

We don’t know if the horn was meant to scare commuters, greet them, jolt them awake or warn them (gratuitously) not to try boarding a moving train. To passengers, it was just another bewildering, maddening, soul-sapping Metro moment, a quotidian annoyance barely worth mentioning.

Except that it is worth mentioning that Metrorail is a slow-rolling embarrassment whose creeping obsolescence is so pervasive, and so corrosive, that Washingtonians are increasingly abandoning it. Even as ridership climbs on MARC and VRE commuter trains, and holds steady on Metro buses, passengers are deserting Metrorail in droves. . . .

And it just goes downhill (both the editorial and Metrorail performance) from there!

Read it all here.

Editorial: Silver Line forecasts are way off, Washington Examiner, November 21, 2012

In 2004, the Federal Transit Administration concluded that the Dulles Rail project was not cost effective, because population densities in the corridor to be served were less than half those required to support heavy rail. . .

. . . We already know that MWAA's 2009 estimate of employment and population growth in Fairfax County was wildly inaccurate, overshooting the final 2010 census numbers by 52 percent. The pro-transit Reston Citizens Association's 2020 Committee has also questioned MWAA's economic forecasts and is now making some predictions of its own:

* Over the next 40 years, population and employment growth in the Dulles Corridor will be lower than predicted;

* There's a 67 percent chance that MWAA's annual revenue forecasts will not be met, with 25 percent shortfalls possible in 40 years;

* 30,000 vehicles will divert from the Dulles Toll Road (Note:  in 2013 if tolls went to $4.50 as initially envisioned) to escape exorbitantly high tolls needed to fund Phase 2.

If the RCA is right, employment and growth rates in the Dulles Corridor will be much lower than the levels optimistically predicted by the outdated "Dulles model" from before the Great Recession, before the threat of sequestration and before density downsizing in Loudoun County. That will affect ridership. . .

. . . There is only one word for a project that costs $2.7 billion and creates more traffic congestion rather than less: insane. The FTA got it right the first time. The feds should spend scarce TIFIA funds on projects that make more economic sense.

We stand by our forecasts mentioned above that were all made months ago.  They were all based on the February 2012 CDMSmith traffic and revenue forecast performed for MWAA which assumed no outside aid to Silver Line construction.

We do not agree, however, with the Examiner editorial's conclusion that MWAA should not receive TIFIA funding for Silver Line construction.  Indeed, failure to provide substantial TIFIA funding for Phase 2 Metrorail construction will only make the economic consequences worse for the Dulles Corridor from Tysons to Loudoun County.   In its simplest terms, the more TIFIA funding used for Metrorail, the less Dulles Toll Road tolls will rise, and the greater the opportunity for some economic growth along the Dulles Corridor while toll road users and developers in the station areas' special tax districts still pay for the bulk of the Silver Line's construction.

And still the currenty 100,000 daily users of the toll road will need ample additional aid from future federal and state funding efforts to assure some degree of prosperity along the Silver Line.

Editorial: Dulles rail line is Gov. McDonnell’s transportation test, Washington Post, April, 16, 2012

By Editorial Board, Published: April 16

SIX YEARS AGO, then-Virginia Gov. Timothy M. Kaine (D) jump-started the Metro system’s Silver Line extension to Dulles International Airport and points west, a massive project whose first phase is chugging toward an on-time, on-budget finish. Will Mr. Kaine’s successor, Robert F. McDonnell, now kill it halfway to completion?

That’s the question facing Mr. McDonnell (R) in the wake of his decision to deny critical funding to Dulles rail, one of the nation’s biggest infrastructure ventures. Even though it is vital to the Washington region’s economic vigor, to the airport’s success and to Virginia’s future, the state has all but turned its back on helping to pay for it. . . .

Click here to read the rest of this editorial.  

Examiner Local Editorial: Fairfax supervisors plan to vote first, ask questions later, Washington Examiner, April 8, 2012

On Tuesday, the Fairfax County Board of Supervisors will decide whether to proceed with funding Phase II of the controversial Dulles Rail project. Board members will make this choice without the benefit of an independent, updated economic feasibility analysis. This is not the first time they have acted so irresponsibly. . .

. . .  Volunteer members of the Reston Citizens Association have done a tremendous public service by doing the supervisors' job for them. An April 2 analysis by RCA's Reston 2020 committee, using the same data provided by the Metropolitan Washington Airports Authority's own consultant, CDM Smith, estimates that the number of drivers who will flee rising tolls on the Dulles Toll Road will dwarf the number of new rail riders when Phase I opens next year. . . .

Click here for the rest of this editorial, which includes more details from the April 2 RCA Reston 2020 report.  

Editorial: Dulles rail's hefty cost, Washington Post, March 4, 2012

This editorial suggests that the forecast toll increases are overblown and that opponents of the rail line, in which it seemingly groups RCA, are using scare tactics to try to block it.  Here are some excerpts:

A RISING CHORUS is warning of crippling price increases on the Dulles Toll Road to finance construction of Metro’s Silver Line extension to Dulles International Airport and Loudoun County. Concerns about toll rates and the Silver Line’s prospects are legitimate. Scare tactics are not. . .

. . . With plain intent to frighten commuters, critics have warned that round-trip rates, currently $5.50 for a full-length trip on the 13-mile toll road, are projected to rise to $33.

Well, yes, maybe — by 2043, and only if you don’t bother adjusting for inflation.
Rates will rise, and some commuters will be priced off the road. . . .

I have added the following response to the editorial on the WaPo website:

 WaPo is entitled to its opinions, and I often agree with them, but--please--you are not entitled to your own arithmetic.

One-way tolls will triple on the Dulles Toll Road in just 6 years, from $2.25 to $6.75, $5.99 "real" price at a realistic 2% inflation rate.

They will nearly quadruple in the next 11 years to $8.75, a $7.04 "real" price bill at 2% inflation.

BUT those toll forecasts almost certainly understate toll growth.

First, this is the third forecast from CDM Smith and its forerunner, Wilbur Smith, in 7 years. Over that time, their forecast for, say, 2030, has quintupled from $2.00 in 2005 to $10.75. How can that be credible?

Second, we are not yet to the point of knowing the final cost of construction for Phase 2 of the Silver Line and, therefore, don't know how high the tolls will really go (as ex-Congressman & MWAA Vice Chairman Tom Davis properly reminds us all).

The consultants' "100% preliminary engineering" cost study was turned into MWAA on February 29, as WaPo's Dana Hedgepeth reported, and MWAA has not yet shared it with its partners, much less the public. We suspect it reports Phase 2 costs are going to be much higher than MWAA forecast a year ago for the now-approved configuration ($3.2 billion).

Why else would MWAA hold this report? Maybe Post reporters can find out.

Finally, the record of Phase 1 suggests that the costs will balloon well beyond those forecast in the cost study MWAA is holding. In fact, the $2.76 billion current price tag for Phase 1 is one-third higher than the comparable "true 100% preliminary engineering" cost study by FTA in 2006.

One-third higher costs would likely mean half-again higher tolls (using Smith's own traffic diversion factors) as more and more people switch to local roads. And there is no doubt that those roads are now overcrowded and deteriorating with current traffic levels.

And the toll burden is not the only issue.

A rail line built on toll road revenue bonds has a substantial risk of failing financially, as have several of the toll roads for which Smith has provided forecasts previously. Two other toll roads that recently added billions to their debt are now in serious financial trouble. It's not clear if default would leave MWAA holding the debt bag, whether it can shift the burden to Virginia which leased the toll road to MWAA, or whether the people of the United States who own the land on which all this is being built and tolled will end up paying.

It also threatens the very reason that Fairfax County wants it built: To stimulate economic development along the corridor and county tax revenues. Simply put, who would want to live or work where it costs an extra $4,000/year or more to drive to work or home?

Reston Citizen Association wants the Silver Line to be built for important transportation and environmental reasons. We just don't believe it can be done successfully on the backs of toll road users alone.  Additional financing means must be found.

Editorial: Don’t burden Fairfax with excessive Metrorail costs, Washington Post, August 13, 2011

IN STRIKING A DEAL last month to shave almost $1 billion from the cost of building Metrorail’s Silver Line extension to Dulles International Airport and points west, Transportation Secretary Ray LaHood probably saved the project. But some of those savings were in fact cost transfers, meaning someone got stuck holding at least a portion of the bag. In this case, the main “someone” is Fairfax County, and the “bag” contains a bill for about $160 million. . . .

 Click here for the rest of the WaPo editorial.  

Editorial: Airports Authority Faces a Decision: Will It Save Dulles Rail? Washington Post, July 3, 2011

BY NOW it is crystal clear that Metro’s Silver Line extension to Dulles International Airport will not be completed without ruthless cost-cutting and major concessions from all the project’s stakeholders.

For the board of directors of the Metropolitan Washington Airports Authority, whose recklessness has led the Silver Line to the edge of death, that means it’s crunch time: Unless the board gives up on an underground station at the airport — when an aboveground station would serve just as well and save hundreds of millions of dollars — the Silver Line will collapse.

For the rest of this no-holds-barred editorial, click here.  

Welcome aboard: Ray LaHood enters the Silver Line squabble, Editorial, Washington Post, May 30, 2011

AT MIDDAY ON WEDNESDAY, just over a dozen politicians and officials, mostly Virginians, will troop into Transportation Secretary Ray LaHood’s office, hoping to rescue Metro’s Silver Line extension to Dulles International Airport. What’s at stake is one of the largest public infrastructure projects in the country, now in jeopardy of coming unraveled in an increasingly bitter feud over costs and financing. Mr. LaHood, having recently rescued another major project , the modernization of Chicago’s O’Hare International Airport, from a similarly venomous impasse, has offered to mediate.

That’s a promising sign, and not just because of Mr. LaHood’s deftness as a go-between. Just as important, he has a critical say in the disposition of federal transportation loans, which could be the key to resolving the Silver Line standoff.

Click here for the rest of this WaPo editorial.

COMMENT:  This editorial, like most other recent news and opinion pieces about Phase 2 of the Dulles Metrorail plan, focuses on the tail (the $300 million cost margin between above and below ground station) and not the really ugly dog of Dulles Metrorail cost allocation.  The two key issues are:

• Whichever station option is picked at Dulles, MWAA is paying a small fraction of the cost of the rail service to the airport at a quarter-billion dollars.  The above ground option costs $600 million, the MWAA-selected mid-lot underground station costs $925 million, and the original beneath-the-terminal station costs more than $1.4 billion.  If MWAA pays for the line and station on its property, it can build any station it wants without burdening the whole of northern Virginia.  
• Dulles Toll Road (DTR) riders will stuck with the bulk of the bill, driving today's two dollar tolls to more than $19 each way according to recent MWAA statements.   There is no reason for DTR users to be stuck with this bill, especially when most of them will not be able to use Metrorail to reach their destinations.  Many of them will divert to other local roads to travel to work, shop, or entertainment, and our local roads are already clogged.  Of course, the only people not represented at the table when this deal was cut were toll road users.  Local pols, more concerned about protecting their budgets, pawned the burden off on their own residents.

 A new arrangement must be made for payment of construction of the Dulles Metrorail line, and it must begin with MWAA paying its fair share and DTR users not paying the bulk of the tab. 

Editorial: The risk of relying on higher Dulles Toll Road revenue, Washington Post, May 7, 2011

THE EXTENSION of Metrorail to Dulles International Airport and beyond, underway in Fairfax County, is one of the biggest public infrastructure projects in America. The venture is vital to this region’s economic development. But at a cost pegged at $6 billion — almost double the estimated price tag in 2004 — it is also generating increasing sticker shock.

That shock is now giving way to political vertigo and pushback, not least because most of the project’s overall cost will fall on commuters who rely on the Dulles Toll Road. Tolls paid by drivers on the road are expected to bear 56 percent of the cost of the extension, which is known as Metro’s Silver Line. Phase II of the project, which will run from Reston through the airport into Loudoun County, relies on tolls for 75 percent of its $3.5 billion cost.

Translation: Toll road users, load up that E-ZPass. Even after adjusting for inflation, a one-way trip, which costs $2 today, is likely to triple or quadruple by the end of this decade, according to preliminary estimates presented to the Metropolitan Washington Airports Authority, which controls the road. That means regular toll road commuters, who now pay about $1,000 a year to drive on the road, may pay more than $4,000 in today’s dollars by the year 2020. And given the Silver Line’s history of ever-spiraling costs, don’t be surprised if that estimate turns out to be low. . .

. . . The authority needs to back down before the whole scheme falls apart. It has failed to make a convincing case that the underground station, which would save Dulles-bound rail passengers scarcely three minutes, is worth the staggering price. The authority should not assume that politicians and commuters will accept infinitely higher costs for the Silver Line, no matter what long-term economic benefits it promises.

 For the rest of this Washington Post Editorial Board Opinion, click here.