SIGN THE PETITION: Stop the TSD road tax on Reston Metro station area residents.

Reston 20/20 has posted a petition on Change.org to stop the planned imposition of a Transportation Service District (TSD) tax on property owners in Reston's Metro station areas.  Below is the text of the petition.  Please click on this link to Change.org and add your voice to the voices of other Restonians who are tired of added Reston taxes for worse public services.  

The Fairfax County Board of Supervisors will likely approve a Transportation Service District (TSD) creating an additional property value driven tax on all property owners in Reston's Metro station areas by the end of 2016.  The TSD's purpose, based on faulty assumptions, is to fill an alleged $350 million "gap" in tax revenues for improving roadways in the station areas as high-density development unfolds.

The Board will most likely approve a TSD that will add 1-3 cents to the property tax rate now experienced by station area property owners.  Moreover, three years of experience at Tysons with a similar TSD indicates that the Board will double or triple the rate within 3-4 years.

The added tax will not be difficult to absorb by developers who will see huge financial gains there in the coming years.   Estimates based on recent experience suggest commercial real estate profits will average more than a billion dollars per year in Reston's station areas over the next four decades--and County property tax revenues will grow right along with the growth in property values.

Unlike County and developers' coffers, however, station area residents will not see any revenue gain from the development that occurs there.  Nonetheless, they will have to pay this added property value-driven tax as property values and tax rates escalate.

Moreover, not only will they not derive any financial benefit from the tax like their commercial and county counterparts, they will actually experience worse traffic conditions by County intent.  Specifically, the County is lowering the performance standard for these roadways, including Reston's four key through north-south and east-west boulevards, from a Level of Service "D" to Level of Service "E."  That means peak period congestion there is likely to cause at least 55-80 second delays at each intersection.

There is no logical, ethical, or other valid reason why Reston residents should pay more road taxes for worse road service so others can profit even more from the arrangement.  Those who profit--real estate developers and the County--should pay the full burden of improving Reston station area roadways to accommodate the massive job and residential growth planned there.   The Board of Supervisors must not approve a Transportation Service District (TSD) for Reston's Metro station areas.

This petition will be delivered to:

• Fairfax County Board of Supervisors
  Chairman Sharon Bulova
• bos@fairfaxcounty.gov
  Fairfax County Board of Supervisors

Does density matter in technology growth in the 21st Century?

For nearly a decade, Fairfax County has highlighted the prospective role of the Silver Line as a critical driver in making the Dulles Corridor a hub of high technology, a mini-Silicon Valley if you will, thriving on a well-educated, densely populated area surrounding the Metrorail stations from Loudoun County to Tysons. 

Recent research by several economists (its always the economists and "the dismal science") suggest that that vision is dying.  Here is the overview of a paper entitled "Are Larger Cities Losing Their Edge," published in the National Bureau of Economic Research's Digest.  Here is the overview of their article:

Are Larger Cities Losing Their Edge?

Inventors in densely populated areas relied on newer scientific breakthroughs more than their more-isolated peers until the middle of the 20th century, after which the disparity steadily narrowed.

Nearly a century ago, the eminent economist Alfred Marshall hypothesized that ideas were more likely to germinate into useful inventions in large cities than in smaller ones. Innovators working in close proximity to other creative minds, he argued, had a greater opportunity to learn of the latest advances and to engage in brainstorming.

In Cities and Ideas (NBER Working Paper No. 20921), Mikko Packalen and Jay Bhattacharya test this conjecture. They study U.S. patents granted between 1836 and 2010, and calculate the population density per square mile where the inventor resided. This enables them to distinguish patents that were developed in urban areas from those that were developed elsewhere. They also identify the key concepts that each patent refers to, which in turn reflect the scientific or engineering foundation on which the patent is based. For each concept, they search the entire patent database to determine the date on which this concept was first mentioned. This makes it possible to classify patents based on the age of their scientific background. A patent for which the key concept first appears in the patent database just one year before the patent was filed is based on "younger" innovations than a patent for which the key concept has been referenced in patents for several decades.

The authors find that, on average, patents that were filed by inventors in densely populated areas relied on newer science than patents filed by their more-isolated peers until the middle of the 20th century. In 1900, for example, a two standard deviation increase in the population density of an inventor's home town was associated with a 20 percent increase in the probability that the patent would be one that relied on the latest scientific advances. The study defines a patent as using "latest advances" if the age of the patent's key concept falls in the youngest 5 percent of the concept age distribution.

The tendency for patents filed by inventors in densely populated areas to rely on newer scientific breakthroughs has waned in recent decades. There was a decline between the 1950s and the 1970s, and, after an uptick in the 1980s, a decline again in the 1990s and 2000s. "Taken together," the authors write, "our results suggest that in the late 20th century agglomeration has become less important to innovation both in absolute terms and relative to other factors—like collaboration—that predict the use of newer ideas."

The authors hypothesize that the recent decline in the difference in use of newer breakthroughs between more- and less-densely populated areas may be due to the spread of new communication technologies that have made new ideas available more readily to all. For example, with the emergence of the Internet, virtual communities may be erasing the advantage of physical proximity, and those in less-urban areas may be able to participate as effectively as those in larger cities in debating the merits and application of new ideas.

— Steve Maas

The ideas presented in this paper are fully consistent and supportive of the notion Reston 20/20 has been presenting to County leaders, the development community, and the public for several years concerning the trend toward less office space per worker.  A key driver in that argumentation is that the internet permits teleworking and there are few advantages to having people clustered in office space (especially enclosed offices) most of the time.  This paper suggests that trend may have national implications for future technology development that undermines that current County vision that a high-density technology corridor such as that currently planned for the Silver Line will have little, if any advantage, to offer either businesses or residents.  It suggests the County's vision may be a plan for the last century although that has yet to be seen in full.

For those interested, here is a link to the full NBER paper.

Jet lagged at Dulles, Loudoun Times, April 22, 2015

Wednesday, Apr. 22, 2015 by Trevor Baratko

Anyone who doubts the severity of the problems facing Dulles International Airport – the hundreds of millions in capital debt, dip in passenger totals and a consistent failure to compete with the smaller Reagan National down the road – need only consider the speakers headlining an April 16 seminar on why Dulles matters.

There, in an open conversation hall at AOL's Dulles headquarters, stood a governor, a U.S. Senator, congresswoman and a half-dozen state and local politicians. All were speaking to the airport's importance, and listening were more than 300 stakeholders and interested parties. These were busy people – busy people who made time for Dulles, because they know the airport is struggling, and they know they need solutions.

Passenger counts at Dulles have fallen over the past decade, from a peak of more than 27 million in 2005 to 23.6 million in 2010 and less than 22 million in 2014. Cargo activity too has dipped, about 25 percent in the past five years.

Two key stats further underscoring Dulles' trials note that nearly the same number of travelers used Dulles and Reagan in 2014, this despite Dulles being 14 times larger than Reagan, and the Metropolitan Washington Airports Authority, which operates Dulles and Reagan, has racked up about $240 million in annual debt service.

Why does the success and viability of Dulles matter? It's simple, economists and politicians say. The airport generates more than $1.2 billion a year in state and local tax revenue for Virginia, D.C. and Maryland, and it supports nearly 250,000 direct or indirect jobs, according to a study commissioned by MWAA. . . .

Click here for the rest of this article.  

While the downward trend in Dulles air traffic has been know for some time, it's linkage and impact on the rest of the area's County--especially the much vaunted "Dulles Corridor" including Tysons and our own Reston--is another sign of the growing economic difficulty of Fairfax County and especially the Dulles Corridor which is counting on the Silver Line to be the engine of County growth for decades to come.  That fewer people that use or work or ship at Dulles only adds to the growing laundry list of things not quite working the way developers and politicians fantasized more than a decade ago when planning for the Silver Line got serious.

We can hope that completion of the Silver Line through IAD and into Loudoun County, now scheduled for 2018, will help reverse the trend for the airport and the corridor, but it will take a long, long time. 

CBRE Sees Persistent Lag in Leasing Velocity, CBRE, June 25, 2013

Key points:

• Vacancies are up--and set an all-time record in NoVa of 16.2%.
• Leasing activity is down 25% from a year ago.
• Rents are down $1-$2 per SF--especially along the DTR.
• DENSIFICATION--fewer square feet per worker--continues inexorably as we've been saying.

Here are some excerpts from the CBRE report:

As the second quarter of 2013 draws to a close, early indicators suggest that the Washington metropolitan region remains a “tenants’ market” fueled by limited leasing activity and rising vacancies.  While the overall economy continues to show positive markers, office markets in the District, Northern Virginia and Suburban Maryland remain stalled in a period of listless activity, dampened by a push for greater office efficiencies and federal budget concerns. . .

Prior to publication of CBRE’s quarterly reports, office leasing velocity throughout the metropolitan Washington region remains relatively unchanged compared to the first quarter of 2013, but is down 25 percent from the second quarter of last year.  The region is experiencing a relatively stable employment picture, although the drive toward workplace efficiencies means fewer square feet per office worker, which translates to lower net demand for office space. . . .

In Northern Virginia, the vacancy rate rose to 16.2 percent, surpassing the previous high of 16 percent in 2002, driven by tenant moves and consolidations. Rents in Northern Virginia decreased $1 to $2 per square foot, especially along the Dulles Toll Road. . . .

Here is the full CBRE 2Q preview press release.

Wonder what the full set of numbers will show in the weeks ahead. 

Office Space Per Worker Will Drop to 100 Square Feet or Below for Many Companies Within Five Years, According to New Research From CoreNet Global, February 28, 2012

ATLANTA, Feb. 28, 2012 /PRNewswire/ -- New data released today from CoreNet Global show for the first time that for many companies, the average allocation of office space per person in North America will fall to 100 square feet or below within the next five years.

By 2017, at least 40% of the companies responding indicated they will reach this all-time low benchmark of individual space utilization, which has been the case in Europe for the past several years but is now heading for the Americas.

The average for all companies for square feet per worker in 2017 will be 151 square feet, compared to 176 square feet today, and 225 square feet in 2010.

"The main reason for the declines," said Richard Kadzis , CoreNet Global's Vice President of Strategic Communications, "is the huge increase in collaborative and team-oriented space inside a growing number of companies that are stressing 'smaller but smarter' workplaces against the backdrop of continuing economic uncertainty and cost containment."

CoreNet Global, which conducted the survey, is the worldwide association for corporate real estate and workplace professionals. . . .

Click here for the rest of this press release.

So while the Reston Task Force is assuming that each office worker will require 300 gross square feet (GSF) per office worker, US corporations are looking to drive the square footage requirement to 100 GSF per office worker over the next decade. 

The Task Force heard from local commercial real estate broker Jones/Lang/LaSalle that local companies are looking for spaces well below 200 GSF/office worker less than a year.  Even GSA is looking for space on the order of 115-180 GSF per worker they said. 

All of this means that the Task Force may recommend office densities as much as three times the requirement for the number of employees that are being forecast by GMU for the Dulles corridor.  Three times as many employees in Reston than intended would seriously jeopardize the residential/non-residential balance the community is seeking--and is generally required by transit-oriented development--in the urbanization of its Metrorail station areas. 

Dulles Toll Road Toll Increases and You: Did You Know . . .

Dulles Toll Road Toll Increases and You

DID YOU KNOW MWAA’s traffic & revenue consultant forecasts—

• doubling full one-way tolls on the Dulles Toll Road (DTR) next year?        
•  . . . tripling tolls ($6.75) within five years?
• . . . nearly quadrupling tolls (to $8.75) within a decade?
• . . . and making further huge toll increases until at least 2047 when they will reach $18.75?

And no one—not even Congress which created MWAA—has the authority to prevent MWAA from making these massive toll increases under current law.

 

What do these toll increases mean to the Dulles Corridor and its residents and employees?

Crippling Regular DTR User Costs

They mean that the cost of using the DTR for regular toll road users (44 work weeks per year) will increase more than eight-fold from less than $1,000 in 2012 to more than $8,000 in 2050.

·         Even on a real cost basis, assuming inflation is 2.5% per year, tolls will increase more than three-fold.  Would you pay nearly $8 each way to use the DTR today?

 

The toll increases will consume nearly half of the future after-tax income growth of weekday Fairfax DTR commuters who earn the current County average household income ($103K).

• That assumes Fairfax income growth will be as robust as it has been since 1990 (2.8%/yr.) and inflation remains at 2.6% of the last two decades.  
• That’s money families won’t be spending on rents/mortgages, education, shopping, medical care, entertainment, etc.

Do you want to spend half of your future raises on tolls?

 

Massive Traffic Diversion to Local Roads

Instead of using the DTR, large numbers of current and future potential DTR users (from new jobs & residents nearby) will shift their driving to local roads.  Based on MWAA’s traffic and growth data, we estimate—

• 36K vehicle trips per day will shift to local roads by 2015, about one-third of those in Reston . . .
• That number will more than double by 2030 (73K trips per day) and . . .
• . . . nearly triple (103K trips per day) by 2050!

Already congested area highways and local roads will become absolutely gridlocked, costing not only driver's time, but adding to regional environmental damage.  On the other hand, the DTR will become "The Highway of the One Percent," driving to work, shop, and play at the speed limit or above.

 

Reduced Dulles Corridor Economic Growth

The massive increases in tolls will almost certainly erode forecast economic growth--jobs and population--in the Dulles Corridor, undercutting Virginia and County expectations for higher tax revenues to meet growing spending needs.  People who won't be able to afford the DTR or are unwilling to pay the exorbitant tolls will find homes and jobs in other areas of Metropolitan Washington. 

• Investments in Fairfax County road improvements, education, parks & recreation, and social programs, among others will need to be reduced—or property taxes raised--despite a growing demand for services. 
• Other areas of Metro Washington will gain from the unfulfilled growth along the Dulles Corridor, including the I-270 technology corridor in Montgomery County.