The Silver Line isn't even completed through Reston and commuters are dropping Metro. Martin Di Caro, WAMU, October 2, 2015

Why D.C.-Area Commuters Say They Are Dropping Metro

By: Martin Di Caro
October 2, 2015 

Some Orange Line riders have decided to avoid the crush — permanently. 

Call them the Metro quitters.

After months of consistently unreliable rush hour service emblematic of this rough year for the D.C. region’s transit system, an unknown but seemingly growing number of commuters are dumping Metro, giving up their seats — if seats are even available aboard packed railcars — for cars, bikes or walking.

WAMU 88.5 has received scores of emails and tweets from Metrorail riders who are quitting the system after the lousy summer that ended on a regrettably fitting note: on Sept. 21 a transformer fire at Metro’s power substation near Stadium-Armory will cause service disruptions for at least six months on the Blue, Orange, and Silver Lines. . . .

Click here for the rest of this extensive article, including a number of comments from former Metro riders.

 

The Silver Line has been bringing Metro’s performance numbers down, GreaterGreaterWashington.org, August 26, 2015

While the title is misleading, this is an excellent post by blogger Stephen Repetski on the deteriorating operating performance of Metrorail.  Here is Repetski's key reason for the deterioration:

In order to open the Silver Line last year, Metro has had to run more train cars longer, and the extra mileage put onto them has meant their breakdowns may affect your service more often.

That's probably true, but we believe the fact that three of the four lines with the greatest deterioration (SL, OR, BL) run through Rosslyn station on the two-track tunnel downtown is a, if not "the", key driver in this phenomenon.   As Repetsky notes, extremely cold weather last winter was also a contributor to performance deterioration--just exactly the time when potential users are seeking good rail transit service.

These graphics capture the major deterioration in performance, especially "did not operate" (DNO):

 

 

It is important to highlight that the deterioration in DNO performance and volatility in on-time performance shown above began in late 2013 or early 2014, many months before the Silver Line began operations and before extra rail cars were needed.  That speaks to extremely poor maintenance, not too much demand for cars.

In fact, if it were not for the Silver Line, total usage of the system would have declined over the last year.  And even among the limited number of SL stations open in Reston and Tysons, only Reston has exceeded usage forecasts for the first year.  We do not expect SL usage to increase until service improves and the new Phase 2 stations to Loudoun are added. 

One cannot also help but notice that, in 2011, WMATA lowered the target on-time performance from 95% to 90% (black line, top graph).  Lowering the bar is not the answer to providing reliable Metrorail service.   It is merely a justification for poorer service.

Most importantly, it shows a continuing systemic deterioration in Metrorail performance for more than 18 months.  And we still don't know the true causes and potential solutions for this increasingly dangerous situation.

For the full post, please click here.

Time for a "Metrorail Holiday"

This is an expanded version of a letter to the editor by Terry Maynard published in the Washington Post. 

As the Post reports today about the latest major safety flaw in Metro’s system:  The train that derailed last week was operating on track deemed to be “black code”—to be shut down immediately until repaired—last month.   This is only the latest in a string of major failures in recent years.  The effects have ranged from deadly accidents to near daily delays and station closures, reduced ridership, deteriorating finances, demoralized employees, and more.  Metrorail is in crisis.

It is time for a “Metrorail holiday.”  Just as FDR closed the nation’s banks for a week-long “bank holiday” in 1933 to put laws and programs in place to salvage the nation’s banks and their patrons, we need the same kind of action for our most critical regional transit system.   

We have the benefit of some time, although at some risk.  In that time, the US Department of Transportation should form a number of truly independent groups expert in every facet of rail mass transit activities.  Those groups should review Metro’s performance and prepare questions on the full range of potential issues from WMATA’s Board composition to escalator failures. 

Then comes the holiday.  During a week of normally low Metro usage—possibly after Christmas or next August summer break period at the latest—Metrorail should be shut down.  WMATA and local public transit agencies should anticipate this shutdown by temporarily bulking up bus and other transit options.  There will be disruptions, but everyone should have time to prepare.

During that holiday, every person involved with Metro should be interviewed, every network and piece of equipment from telephones to rail cars should be examined, every policy and process should be reviewed, and every inch of track should be inspected.    

Each expert group should prepare a systematic analysis and submit it with a series of findings and recommendations to the Secretary of Transportation.  DOT may need to prepare an overview of the results, set an overarching agenda, and provide other guidance to WMATA.  Future federal and other funding should be tied to WMATA addressing the recommendations satisfactorily.

Yes, it is that bad.  Yes, it will be disruptive.  Yes, a Metrorail holiday is absolutely necessary to make Metro a safe and reliable mass transit system.  Anything less will result in Metrorail’s continuing death spiral and growing danger to the public.

Dr. Gridlock: Questions from riders about Metrorail schedule plan, WaPo, July 13, 2015

A key quote from this article:

I think riders on the far ends of the Green, Yellow, Silver and Orange lines should be particularly concerned about this proposal. They are served by only one line, and the greater spacing and crowding will be most noticeable there. . .

This chart shows the scope of the proposed cutbacks in service on these lines:

Please read the rest of this article here.

If you are a Silver Line rider (or even if you're not) who is concerned about the proposed reduction in peak period service from 6 minutes to 8 minutes with a  23% cut in the number of Silver Line cars during peak hour peak direction, please contact Hunter Mill Supervisor and WMATA Board member and Senior Vice Chair Cathy Hudgins.

Metro aims to cut trains on some lines, including the Silver Line to Reston.

Washington Post

Metro aims to cut trains on some lines

Trains would arrive less frequently under a new proposal from Metro. (Courtesy WMATA)

By Dana Hedgpeth June 30 at 10:12 AM

Metro is proposing adding more trains and reducing the wait times for riders on its crowded Blue Line, but at the expense of at least four other rail lines.

The proposed changes are expected to be presented Wednesday night at a meeting of its riders advisory group. They would still need to go through public hearings and approval by the board. If approved, the changes would go into place in December, according to Metro officials.

The changes are meant to ease crowding on the Blue Line.

Riders on the Blue Line would see trains every eight minutes in rush hour, up from the current 12 minutes. There would also be more trains on the Blue Line at peak times — roughly 56, up from the current 36.

That means trains on the Orange, Silver, Green and Yellow lines will see changes as well. There would be fewer trains on most of those lines. Trains would come every eight minutes, instead of every six minutes as they do now. . . .

Click here for the rest of this article.

Oh, why not?

Dulles Toll Road users are only paying half of the $6 biillion cost to build the Silver Line, not to mention the $900 million the County is putting into building it, so if there are fewer trains, maybe more people will crowd on to the DTR--lowering future astronomical toll growth.  The line should last years longer if fewer trains run on it!  (OK, we're just kidding!) 

. . . but it is really hard to make this stuff up!  Who are these people???

Loudoun says it's in the dark on Silver Line despite $300M investment, Washington Business Journal, June 17, 2014

Michael Neibauer writes:

When it comes to the Silver Line project, even a $300 million investment isn’t enough to get answers.

Loudoun County will pay for more than 10 percent of the $2.778 billion extension of the Silver Line from Reston to Ashburn — or 4.8 percent of the $5.7 billion combined Phase 1 and Phase 2 price tag. But the county has very little role in, or even knowledge of, the project itself, according to a staff report. That includes major decisions such as schedule, cost and design changes. . .

The frustration bubbled to the surface in late April, when MWAA publicly announced that stormwater management and technical design changes would delay the opening of the 11.4-mile Silver Line Phase 2 by roughly 13 months.   (Reston 20/20 note:  And we have learned since that the stormwater issue accounts for only one month of the 13-month delay.)

The decisions were all made, Loudoun staff says, by MWAA and contractor Capital Rail Constructors (led by Clark Construction Group LLC and Kiewit Infrastructure South Co.) during a “six-month effort of schedule development and negotiations” in which neither Loudoun nor Fairfax had any role. Loudoun received a revised schedule in mid-May, indicating a late 2019 or early 2020 launch for passenger service, but it still has not been provided a new cost estimate or any word of the increased construction costs resulting from the design changes. . .

Both Loudoun and Fairfax, according to Loudoun staff, “were again excluded from schedule impact discussions” between MWAA and its contractor, the development of a revised schedule, and ongoing discussions regarded additional costs resulting from the massive stormwater management redesign. . . .

Click here for the rest of Mr. Neibauer's article.

WMATA Safety Management Inspection Report, June 15, 2015

   WMATA Safety Management Inspection Report, June 17, 2015 by Terry Maynard

To receive this unsafe Metrorail service, Dulles Toll Road users are paying $2.8 billion plus interest toward the construction of the Silver Line, all Restonian and other Fairfax County residents are expected to pay $161MM in 2016 (per the WMATA draft budget) for the operation and capital investments in WMATA rail & bus service through the County's contribution to WMATA, and a much smaller share of the statewide contribution to WMATA. 

And that was before the costs the FTA's fixes will require.  

MWAA: Silver Line Phase 1 Final Costs Up $76 Million, Phase 2 to Take 13 Months Longer & Add to Costs

April 27, 2015   

Airports Authority Updates Status of Silver Line Metrorail Construction Project 

Design Changes Enhance Safety, Reliability, Environmental Protection

Will Add Time, Cost; Will Not Impact Dulles Toll Road Rates 

The Metropolitan Washington Airports Authority announced Monday that design modifications
made to enhance the safety and reliability of the Metrorail Silver Line, along with remaining
work to finalize Phase 1 of the overall project, will add $76 million, or about 2.6 percent, to the
previously announced Phase 1 cost. The new Phase 1 cost remains within the original federally
approved Phase 1 budget.

Toll rates on the Dulles Toll Road will not be affected. Toll rates will remain at current levels
through 2018, and the previously published, decades-long toll rate schedule will remain
unchanged.  Revenue from tolls is one of several sources of funding for the Silver Line project,
which the Airports Authority is constructing for the Washington Metropolitan Area Transit
Authority (WMATA).

A recently concluded global settlement with the construction contractor for Phase 1, Dulles
Transit Partners, along with the resolution of other outstanding matters – including the close-out
of Virginia permits which allowed Phase 1 work within Routes 7 and 123 in Tysons Corner, and
the execution of contracts to supplement certain Phase 1 work, as required by WMATA – has
allowed the Airports Authority to project a final Phase 1 close-out cost of $2.982 billion, which
represents an additional cost of about $76 million, and to move to the final close-out of the Phase
1 project.  The majority of the remaining work on Phase 1, which opened for business in July
2014, will be completed by the end of this year, including the delivery of 64 new rail cars at a
cost of $189.4 million to expand the Metrorail fleet.  Final close-out of Phase 1 is expected to
occur in 2016.

“The Phase 1 global settlement is an important milestone in the Silver Line project, following its
successful launch in July 2014,” Airports Authority CEO Jack Potter said.  “It gives us closure
on the most substantial cost component of Phase 1, ensures we will achieve the project’s federal
budget targets and allows us to maintain the existing toll schedule for the Dulles Toll Road.”

The ultimate impact of the Phase 1 additional costs may be reduced or even eliminated if the
contingency budget for Phase 2 of the Silver Line project is not fully used and the total project,
both Phases 1 and 2, comes in at or under the overall project budget.

The Airports Authority also announced an update to the construction schedule for Phase 2 of the
Silver Line project, which will extend service from the terminus of Phase 1 in Reston, Virginia,
through Washington Dulles International Airport and into Loudoun County, Virginia.

More than 150 modifications have been made and integrated into the design for Phase 2. Many
of these modifications parallel design changes made in the latter stages of Phase 1 and will
enhance the safety and reliability of Phase 2.  The modifications, when combined with associated
weather and construction delays, have extended the Phase 2 construction schedule by about 13
months.

“Over 100 design changes were made in Phase 1 – a large number of them ordered in the final
months of the construction process – requiring additional design, engineering, construction,
management and oversight work,” said Charles Stark, the Airports Authority’s executive director
of the Silver Line project. “For consistency, many of these same safety and reliability
modifications needed to be incorporated into Phase 2 of the project, which then impacted the
schedule.”

Potter said, “The added costs arising from Phase 2 design modifications will remain within the
Phase 2 contingency budget of $550 million and will have no effect on the toll rates on the
Dulles Toll Road. With our project partners, we are committed to limiting future design changes.
Phase 1 is already experiencing ridership beyond expectations, and significant construction and
development is underway along its path in the Dulles Corridor. We are confident that Phase 2
will experience similar success.” 

Construction of the Silver Line, one of the largest public transportation construction projects
underway in the country, is managed by the Metropolitan Washington Airports Authority, and is
being built in partnership with Loudoun and Fairfax counties and the Commonwealth of
Virginia, with financial assistance from the federal government.  It will be transferred to the
WMATA for operation upon completion. 
                                                                         ### 

Wiehle Station Metro users pay the highest fares in the Metrorail system.

This is Reston 2020's 2,000th post in its 5-1/2 year history in the blogosphere looking after the community planning interests of Restonians!  And more posts are on their way.

A really nifty article and graphic called Metrorail Revenue by Station--Visualized!  at Plan-It Metro shows that the people who use our first Reston Metrorail station pay the highest average fares of any users on the Metrorail system no matter the time of day. 

• On an all day average, the 8,137 users of the Wiehle station pay $4.34 per entry, the highest anywhere on the Metrorail system.  The second highest average fare goes to the Vienna station at $4.08 per passenger.  In fact, those are the ONLY two stations--both in Fairfax County--that average more than $4.00 per entry in the entire Metrorail system.

• During the morning peak period, the average 5,079 Wiehle station users pay $5.36 per user, the only users on the Metrorail system who pay more than $5.00 during the AM peak period.

• During mid-day, Wiehle station users again pay the highest fares in the system at an average of $3.38 per user, just two cents ahead of their Vienna station counterparts.

• During the afternoon peak period, Metrorail users entering the Wiehle station again pay the highest fare at a $5.18, the only average fare system-wide that exceeds $5.00.

• And, finally, in the slack evening period, Wiehle station entrants again pay the highest average fares in Metrorail at $3.44, slightly ahead of their Vienna counterparts at $3.33 per person average.

So those who choose not to use the Dulles Toll Road because of the abusive charges to cover the building of the Silver Line also face the highest fares in the Metrorail system, morning, noon, and night.

Why?

Here's the interactive graphic:

"The draft (financial management) report commissioned by the Federal Transit Administration paints a damning picture of Metro officials' management of billions of dollars in federal grant money," Washington Post, March 11, 2015

 UPDATE:  In a March 27 follow-up article in WaPo, reporter Lori Aratani writes that Moody's downgrades Metro's bond ratings.   The article notes that WMATA's rating has been downgraded from Aa3 to A1 in large part because of its need for additional short-term financing and limited reserves discussed below.  The only reason an "A" can be attached to these bonds at all is the backing of localities in all three area jurisdictions--DC, MD, and VA.  In other cases like this, we would be looking WMATA bonds at junk ratings.  And who will pay the extra interest created by this management mess?  Taxpayers in all participating locations.
 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. . . not to mention billions of dollars of state and local funds as well as the fares paid by Metrorail riders and the tolls paid by Dulles Toll Road users.

This year-old draft audit of WMATA's financial management systems, presented by the Washington Post, paints a picture of a nearly bankrupt, utterly incompetent, and potentially corrupt regional transportation system.  It is one of the bleakest assessments of any government financial management system at any level of government we have ever seen.  “It’s an incredible lack of management for such an important public agency. Yet no one seems to be held accountable for it,” said (DC council member Elissa) Silverman (I-At Large) , a member of the council’s finance and revenue committee."  We think that is an understatement. 

And how has WMATA leadership responded:

• It has blamed the failures on previous managers--again and again and again ad nauseum . . .

• It has hired not one, but TWO, public relations firms to polish its image--we kid you not!  (Ummm, how about hiring a financial expert or two to fix WMATA's pathetic financial management systems and identify those who should be summarily fired instead?  Just a thought....)

And now WaPo (Abigail Hauslohner and Paul Duggan) reports that some of financial consequences are coming home to roost with a half-billion dollars in short-term debt due by October, and more money will be needed before year-end.

Metro officials want permission to borrow $220 million to cover a loan coming due in October, as the transit agency continues struggling under restrictions imposed last year after a federal audit found numerous instances of financial mismanagement. . .

If Metro obtains the $220 million loan, it would still need an additional $208 million to cover loans due later this year. It could tap cash reserves, obtain other financing or persuade some of its lenders to extend credit terms.

In documents prepared ahead of the Metro board’s meeting Thursday, Metro staff said that despite cash-flow improvements, “pressures remain on the amount and availability of cash in the near term.”
Metro’s total short-term debt amounts to $502 million, money that Metro Board Chairman Mortimer Downey said has been used primarily for building projects and improvements. . . .

And WMATA's own audit of finances that ended June 2014 is four months overdue and won't be completed until April according to WMATA's acting GM.  By our calculation, that's at least five months and maybe a half-year overdue--if the forecast is remotely accurate.

As you might expect, the shortfalls in short-term financing are affecting WMATA's ability to borrow long-term for needed capital investments in the Metrorail system.

“Until there is comfort that the financial management systems and processes are in order, the [chief financial officer] cannot recommend long-term borrowing or additional capital requests beyond safety needs for WMATA,” David Umansky, a spokesman for D.C. Chief Financial Officer Jeffrey S. DeWitt, said later in an e-mail.

OK, let's say WMATA puts its horribly mis-managed financial house in order.  That doesn't mean it will have more financial reserves.  Even if it has a good financial management system, that will not address the availability of long-term capital to fulfill WMATA's planned Metrorail (NOT bus) capital improvements in its "Momentum:  Strategic Plan for 2013-2025."   Those total about $4.9 billion in 2012 dollars (which is about $5.9 billion in future dollars over the 12-year period).  

How does WMATA expect to gain access to twelve times as much long-term capital as it now has outstanding in short-term debt if it cannot pay off its short-term debt, but needs to roll it over routinely--and add to it--even if financial controls are in place?

The question is especially salient for those who live or work near the new Silver Line, which County officials see as the driver of economic growth at Tysons, Reston, Herndon, and on into Loudoun County for decades to come. 

We've already documented that the 64 scheduled new Kawasaki Series 7000 railcars for Phase 1 of the Silver Line (to Wiehle/Reston) are overdue with little reasonable explanation of why or when they might be put in service.  Maybe they are overdue at least in part because WMATA can't pay for them, and not the incomplete safety tests as reported by WaPo.  What does that forebode for the second delivery of 64 Series 7000 railcars when the Silver Line's Phase 2 to Loudoun County is put into operation in 2018?  And that doesn't consider the 620 other railcars at a total cost of $2 billion that WMATA is plans to have in operation by December 2018. 

Yet WMATA can find money to spend on two public relations firms.  Who makes up these priorities?

We have no idea how WMATA will dig itself out of this huge financial hole.  Indeed, WMATA appears to be digging the hole deeper as its Board decides not to raise fares this year to stop declining usage (because of declining service quality and safety concerns) at a time when it needs to borrow more to cover short-term funding needs.  The fear--and we don't think that is an exaggeration--is that WMATA will turn first once again to state and local governments beyond Washington, DC, to bail it out again. Until WMATA has its financial house in order, there is no legitimacy to ANY government--federal, state, or local--providing it additional funding. 

And, oh yes, here is that awful audit of WMATA's financial management system:

   Draft Report WMATA Management Oversight Review

Greater Greater Washington reviews Silver Line usage--and Wiehle is the most used station!

Based on interactive maps generated on WMATA's PlanItMetro website, GGW offers the following insights on use of the Wiehle-Reston Metrorail station:

Wiehle-Reston East gets the most passengers overall

Wiehle-Reston East currently handles the lion's share of passengers at new Silver Line stations, partly because it's a hub for transit riders whose bus routes take them there or who use the station's large park-and-ride garage. Wiehle-Reston East's ridership base is a lot like other stations at the end of Metro lines: the overwhelming majority of its riders are inbound commuters who enter on weekday mornings and exit on weekday evenings.

Interestingly, Wiehle is also the largest single commuting destination on the Silver Line. On the average weekday during the morning peak, about 1,000 passengers exit at Wiehle, compared to about 5,000 entries. Even though Tysons Corner is a jobs hub, only about 900 people exit at that station during the same period. At the four stations in the Tysons area, there are about 2,100 combined exits during this period.

The Wiehle number is impressive because more people exit at Wiehle Avenue during the morning peak than exit from any other terminal station. Wiehle's 1,046 average exits trumps the next-best terminal, Shady Grove (with 977 average exits).

Also interestingly, Wiehle's ratio of entries to exits is the smallest of all the terminal stations (meaning it's the most tilted toward exits). At Wiehle Avenue, for every exit, there are 4.9 entries. That compares to 6.1 entries for every exit at New Carrollton, 7.3 at Greenbelt, and 7.5 at Largo.

Some of this ridership is likely due to people connecting to buses bound for Reston, Herndon, and Dulles Airport. But there are some office buildings around the station as well.

Ridership at Wiehle will likely change once Phase Two is complete: many passengers who currently arrive on buses, or take them to destinations like Reston Town Center or Dulles, will instead start boarding the Silver Line farther down the line.

While it is reasonable generates more morning boardings than other SL stations because it is at the end of the line, it is pleasantly surprising that it also generates more morning exits than any other endpoint station in the system as well as major job hub Tysons.  Apparently, Reston IS a destination!

D.C.’s Silver-Line Slog, CITY Journal, Autumn 2014

The following are excerpts from the lengthy subject article by Ethan Epstein:

A costly and long-delayed subway project raises questions about America’s ability to build needed infrastructure.

BRIAN GORDON GREEN/NATIONAL GEOGRAPHIC CREATIVE.  Metro Washington’s burgeoning population has overwhelmed the public transportation system, making traffic unbearable.

 

A trip through Washington, D.C.’s Dulles International Airport offers a glimpse of what people in the past thought transportation would look like in the future. Opened in 1962, the airport boasts a quintessentially “mod” look, thanks to a stunning, Eero Saarinen–designed main terminal meant to evoke flight. But Dulles evokes the early 1960s in another way: its lack of a rail connection to the city it serves recalls a time when the automobile was king. Indeed, Dulles, the city’s primary international airport, is situated nearly 30 miles of congested highway away from the District of Columbia’s downtown core and linked to the city by only infrequent public buses. Chronic heavy traffic makes the ride painfully slow.

But change is coming. This past summer saw the opening of the first segment of a new Washington subway (dubbed Metro) rail line that eventually will connect Dulles to D.C.’s central business district. The new line’s first phase cost $2.9 billion to construct, and the most optimistic estimates put the final price tag for the project—decades in the making—as high as $5.6 billion. That’s nearly $1,000 for every man, woman, and child in the Washington metro area. The sluggishness of the process and its eye-popping cost raise troubling questions about America’s ability to construct vital infrastructure. . .

As a point of comparison for just how expensive the Silver Line will prove to be, consider the 2014 Winter Olympics in Sochi, for which the Russian government was roundly mocked for its vast spending—some $51 billion on construction, nearly $10 billion more than China spent on its 2008 summer games. In particular, critics pointed to a 30.4-mile railroad/highway connecting the ski slopes to the town of Sochi, which alone cost $8.7 billion—about $286 million per mile. As one commentator noted, it would have been cheaper to pave the pathway with a centimeter-thick layer of beluga caviar.

But Washingtonians shouldn’t be quick to chortle. If the Silver Line meets its currently projected cost, it would cost $243 million per mile. And the Russian project included both road and rail, while ascending mountains. . .

Is there a saner approach to transportation infrastructure?  . . . .

 Click here for the full article.

Actually, Wiehle Station Silver Line ridership already exceeds first-year expectations while Tysons lags

We have seen a number of articles based on a WMATA press release yesterday about the great ridership progress made in the first two months of Silver Line Phase 1 operations.  Here's how WMATA leads off:

Metro today provided updated Silver Line ridership information showing that, less than two months after opening, the new line is already performing at 60 percent of its projected ridership for the end of the first full year of service. As of last week, an average of 15,000 riders are entering the system at the five new Silver Line stations on weekdays for a combined 30,000 trips to or from the new stations.

In the planning process, Silver Line ridership was projected to reach 25,000 boardings at the five new stations after one full year of service.

Metro estimates that the Silver Line is currently adding approximately 6,000 new riders -- making roughly 12,000 trips -- to the Metrorail system each weekday. The balance, approximately 9,000 riders, are primarily former Orange Line riders who have switched to the Silver Line.

Wiehle-Reston East remains the Silver Line’s commuting powerhouse, having already surpassed first-year ridership projections with 8,400 boardings, or 16,800 weekday entries and exits.  With convenient bus transfers, a secure bike room and a large parking garage, Wiehle-Reston East’s commute makes up around half the line’s ridership. . . .

In short, the new Silver Line stations are generating about 60% of the 25,000 boardings WMATA expects by the end of the first year of operations.  That translates into 50,000 trips each way per day on the Silver Line.   Actually, a September 12, 2013, brief by WMATA on marketing the Silver Line puts that total daily trips at a slightly smaller number, 49,000, as shown in this graphic:

 

The important thing to notice here is that this projection indicates our Wiehle-Reston East station should produce 16,400 of those trips each day by the end of the year.  

The good news, according to the WMATA press release, is that Wiehle is already generating 16,800 daily trips, 400 more than WMATA projected by the end of the first year of operations.  

Yes, Restonians like mass transit and are using it more than forecast.

The question then is:  Why aren't more riders using the Silver Line at Tysons?  By the end of the first year of operations, it should be carrying 32,600 people per day according to the graphic above.  Right now, subtracting out Reston's share of the traffic, it is only carrying about 13,200 riders daily or 40% of its year-end forecast traffic. 

We wonder if Tysons lack of "a secure bike room and a large parking garage(s)" might not be the problem even with the free (with Metro transfer) circulator bus service there--which gets mixed reviews because of infrequent service on circuitous routes.  (Sounds like the same reviews of the Reston RIBS bus service, which isn't free and each route is much longer & service less frequent.  Hint for Fairfax DOT:  More buses + more frequency = more riders.  And "free" is good too!)   And the absence of parking garages at Tysons isn't a design flaw, it's a "design feature" no matter how ill-conceived.  

Whatever the reasons, we hope that Tysons joins Reston and lives up to WMATA's expectations by next July.