Notes on Reston Task Force Meeting, April 17, 2012

                                      R. Rogers

                                      18 April 2012

Highlights: 17 April 2012 Reston Master Planning Task Force Meeting

Summary and Comment:  The meeting focused on trends in the commercial market in the Washington area with special reference to Reston.  In general, the office market is slow in the region and even slower in Fairfax.  The longer term outlook for Reston, particularly the town center, looks somewhat better, particularly if it can fulfill younger workers expectations of a more urban lifestyle.

Metro Silver Line

     Patti Nicoson said she had talked with Ken Plum before the meeting on the Virginia Senate’s action on the budget.  Plum said the situation was uncertain but that presumably the budget will go back to the Senate-House reconciliation committee. She also said the MWAA seemed likely to defer a request for qualifications (RFQ) until the issue of Loudoun participation becomes clear.

FC Planning

     Terry Maynard raised the issue of concern in Reston about forthcoming FC planning action on revisions to the planning maps. Heidi said this was a routine action to update the maps, which was last done in 1995.  The aim is to reflect more accurately existing county guidelines. Among other things it aims to better reflect county vs private open space. She said the report and maps will be available for public inspection soon.

Trends in the Commercial Office Market.

     The bulk of the meeting was a presentation by Harry Klaff and Scott Homa (head of research) of Jones Lang LaSalle (JLL)on trends in the regional commercial real estate market. JLL has done consulting work for DPZ on various issues including COMSTOCK. The presentation was data rich and will be on the county website.   

     Current regional trends: The Washington area is suffering with limited current absorption of office space.  In fact, the area lost 1.5 million GSF of occupied space with NoVa  representing 1.3 million of this in the first quarter of 2012. This is in contrast with the first decade of the century when the Washington area led the nation because of the federal anti-recession programs and the federal spending boom earlier in 2002-2007.

     JLL thought there were several factors at work—the election cycle, divided government, the absence of a federal budget, and the federal deficit—that generated this market stagnation.  On top of this was a drive by tenants for greater space efficiency and some downsizing. All this has led companies, particularly government contractors, to defer decision on new space.

     Job Numbers: Still, regional job creation is only a little bit below trends. This has partly been because of qrowth in “green” businesses and social media organizations, but most of this has been downtown. (“Living Social” was mentioned several times.  See today’s Washington Post for an article and picture.  It has grown from 50 employees to 3,500 in four years.)

     Longer term, JLL said they foresaw the entire region growing at about 37,000 jobs per year, somewhat lower than the 50,000 per year trend line.  There was some (confusing) discussion about how this agrees with recent revisions by GMU lowering their job projections.

     Space downsizing: Job growth and weak office demand is in part due to contractors and even the government using less space per employee. GSA has been seeking space at 110-185 GSF per employee.  Downsizing to 80-120 sq. ft per employee is not uncommon. Telecommuting, work at home and technology is part of this, although JLL did not distinguish from employment in place or at home in its estimates.

     Generation Y: Another factor at work is the interest in workers in their 20s in a more urban, walkable, 24/7 environment with nearby housing and various amenities, particularly restaurants. (JLL cited a figure of 77% wanting such an environment). Rosslyn-Ballston has profited from this trend.  (Terry comment:  In general, the presentation did not address non-singles households as largely represented by Gen Y.  In particular, there were no insights into senior living or traditional family (2 adults plus kids) market demand or accommodations.)

Reston Area

     These trends are apparent in the Reston area, they said.  Overall, there is a 16% vacancy with much it in the older, suburban style properties.  Someone looking for space here has 25-40 options now. However, Town Center has only a 3% vacancy rate and can command a 42% rental premium because of the available amenities.

     Although the growth drivers appear to be downtown, JLL saw potential in the suburban areas for contractors focusing on cyber security, photo reconnaissance and information technology.

     One factor in Reston that may impact jobs is the need for more affordable rental housing.  In addition, a good quality walk able supermarket is a big draw for younger residents.

     Impact of Metro: In response to a question, JLL said that Metro should open up Reston for other types of users.  For example, GSA strongly favors locations near Metro in relocations.  However, in the short term, there may be some concern about the impact of Metro dislocation and construction disruption.  They noted that this is currently evident at Tysons.

     Parking: Downtown there has been a marked trend toward auto-less households.  This is partly economic, but also driven by the viability of Zipcars.

     In Fairfax County, almost all households and job holders are car dependent.  Some TF members thought this would mean that new construction in Reston would be strongly auto-oriented. JLL agreed that in the Reston-Herndon area parking will be essential—curtailing it would be a “mistake”-- at least in the intermediate term.  However, Roslyn-Ballston shows that over time parking can be less essential.  There was some interest from TF members in the TF for taking a closer look at parking issues.

Old Business

     Heidi said that DPZ is working with FC schools to develop a more qualitative analysis of school needs.  She mentioned the possibility that school needs might be met by the expansion of facilities rather than new construction.

     Parks: Heidi noted discussion at the last meeting about the interaction of Phase I and Phase II re parks and recreation needs.   She noted that Parks was trying to better define which needs could be met in the TOD areas and which outside it. Phase II would include discussion of those needs that can be met in the Phase II area by new or nearby facilities

Next Up

     April 24: An overview of the by FC transportation analysts of the process they are using to determine transportation needs. Heidi noted they are particularly using the Vision Committee analysis in this.

     May 8:  Meeting canceled because FC transportation results will not be completed.

     May 22: Public security and public utility needs.

     June 12: Results of the transportation analysis. FC DOT is trying to take into account among other things the impact of an increase in the DTR tolls.