Writing in this week's Reston Connection, John Lovaas, the Independent Progressive, lays out a series of discrepancies discovered by Ernst & Young in its audit of the Lake Anne of Reston Condominium Association (LARCA) for the last three years. After laying out the details, he ends with the comment, "Next-All await the outcome of the Commonwealth Attorney’s investigation!"
We thought you should know the full story. Below we present present the full presentation received by the LARCA Board so you can assess for yourself the competence and legality of the decisions made by LARCA management. It does not look good.
Saturday, June 27, 2020
Saturday, June 6, 2020
After just one week into the Phase 1 re-opening of northern Virginia businesses, the number of new cases of COVID-19 is increasing at a faster rate than the preceding week. In fact, the rate of case increases is up 22% in Reston (from 1.8% to 2.1% per day) and Fairfax County’s new case rate increased by more than twice that—48%. Virginia’s overall case rate, including those counties that opened two weeks earlier, increased 33%. Worst, the nation’s COVID-19 case rate increased by 59% over the last week.
In Reston, the number of reported cases grew from 420 to 487 over the first week of the county’s re-opening, significantly less than the rate of growth in the county. Overall, Reston’s number of cases per 100,000 people remains 27% below the county rate, but the county’s case rate per 100K people remains nearly twice that of the state and the nation—very poor.
With only 4.2% of its population tested Virginia remains well behind the nation in testing rate, but Fairfax County (4.7%) and Reston (4.8%) are performing better on this metric. Nationally, 5.7% of the population has been tested for COVID-19.
Thursday, May 28, 2020
As Fairfax County begins its re-opening following the COVID-driven shutdown of the last two months, we thought it would be important to track the impact of that partial re-opening over time.
Available data for Reston and Fairfax County as of yesterday—the day before the re-opening began—shows a significant decline in the rate of growth of CV-19 cases over the previous six days as pointed out in RestonNow yesterday.
- For Reston, that decline was more than 40% from a growth rate of 3.1% to 1.8% per day over the last six day period.
- For the county, the decline was an even more dramatic 57% from 3.8% to 1.6% per day over the same timeframe.
Those growth rates are both slightly less than Virginia’s rate of CV-19 case growth (2.0%) over the same timeframe, but double the rate of case growth (0.8%) for the whole country. Whether those local reductions are sufficient to justify the re-opening only time will tell, but we will be there to track to growth of CV-19 cases.
COVID-19 Case and Testing Data: Reston and Beyond
One glaring gap in the county’s CV-19 data is the absence of published testing data. The state publishes the testing counts by ZIP code (which is how we figured out Reston’s situation), but we are not in a position to track down those sums for the county. In theory, the Northern Virginia Regional Commission publishes the testing count (and other CV-19) data, but we have been unable to access it—just the whirling tornado indicating it is attempting to load the data.
Regrettably, we are left to suspect that the county testing efforts are poor—Reston has only tested 3% of its population, same as the state—and the county is too embarrassed to publish the information. Nationwide, testing rates have been at five percent. So, we are re-opening the county in nearly total ignorance of the full case level in the county.
Friday, May 22, 2020
An Update on Reston’s COVID-19 Situation: Substantial Increase in Reston Cases, but Fairfax County is Badly Exceeding State & National COVID-19 Rates
Following up on our brief report on Reston’s COVID-19 situation 10 days ago, Virginia health data shows that the number of cases locally has grown 35% in the last ten days. This is less than the growth rate for COVID-19 in the county and state, but more than double the national case growth rate.
The highest number of cases in Reston is in the south Reston area (ZIP 20191) with 187 cases, but the highest case rate (cases/100K people) is in central Reston (ZIP 20190). Still, the highest growth rate (changes in the number cases over the last 10 days) is in north Reston (ZIP 20194) at 50%, largely because it had so few cases 10 days ago. A little pain spread throughout all of Reston.
More worrisome is the substantially higher case rate in Fairfax County—double that of the state as a whole and half again as high as the nation as a whole. It is clear why the Governor kept northern Virginia on lock down for an extra period, but it is not clear that the added two weeks will be sufficient. We wonder why Fairfax County continues to perform so poorly in preventing COVID-19.
We will update this periodically.
Monday, May 11, 2020
While Fairfax County continues to refuse to provide data on the Coronavirus-19 outbreak on a ZIP code basis so neighborhoods and communities can understand their health situation, the Commonwealth of Virginia is now providing some of that information. Here is the data available concerning Reston’s three ZIP codes provided by Virginia as of today (May 11, 2020):
Reston Covid cases by ZIP Code, May 11, 2020
With an estimated 2016 population of 62,320, which means Reston is experiencing about 419 cases per 100,000 people. On the other hand, Fairfax County data indicates that the county, with 5,973 covid cases and an estimated 1,167,000 population is running about 512 cases per 100,000 population, which means we are doing better than the county as a whole.
Nonetheless, Reston is doing much more poorly than the state on a per capita basis (Reston at 419/100K and VA at only 253/100K) and only about consistent with the national average per capita case load. This is somewhat surprising given the quality of health care and general wealth we have in our area. WTOP explains this burgeoning county case burden:
The county, the largest in population in the state at an estimated 1.1 million people, said Thursday its pandemic curve is still in the exponential growth phase. As of Wednesday night, Fairfax County has 5,045 cases, 832 hospitalized and 211 deaths from COVID-19 — each of those numbers is more than twice the total of the next highest county.
Fairfax County outlined the causes:
- Significant community-wide transmission is happening in the Fairfax health district, which means more people are getting sick and, in turn, infecting others.
- Commercial lab capacity continues to increase and more testing means more cases documented.
- What is counted by public health as a COVID-19 case has changed.
All this provides good reason for Board of Supervisors Chairman Jim McKay to ask that Fairfax and other Northern Virginiacounties be exempted from the governor’s plan to begin re-opening the state next week.
We will provide periodic updates on Reston’s situation.