Editorial: Dulles rail's hefty cost, Washington Post, March 4, 2012

This editorial suggests that the forecast toll increases are overblown and that opponents of the rail line, in which it seemingly groups RCA, are using scare tactics to try to block it.  Here are some excerpts:

A RISING CHORUS is warning of crippling price increases on the Dulles Toll Road to finance construction of Metro’s Silver Line extension to Dulles International Airport and Loudoun County. Concerns about toll rates and the Silver Line’s prospects are legitimate. Scare tactics are not. . .

. . . With plain intent to frighten commuters, critics have warned that round-trip rates, currently $5.50 for a full-length trip on the 13-mile toll road, are projected to rise to $33.

Well, yes, maybe — by 2043, and only if you don’t bother adjusting for inflation.
Rates will rise, and some commuters will be priced off the road. . . .

I have added the following response to the editorial on the WaPo website:

 WaPo is entitled to its opinions, and I often agree with them, but--please--you are not entitled to your own arithmetic.

One-way tolls will triple on the Dulles Toll Road in just 6 years, from $2.25 to $6.75, $5.99 "real" price at a realistic 2% inflation rate.

They will nearly quadruple in the next 11 years to $8.75, a $7.04 "real" price bill at 2% inflation.

BUT those toll forecasts almost certainly understate toll growth.

First, this is the third forecast from CDM Smith and its forerunner, Wilbur Smith, in 7 years. Over that time, their forecast for, say, 2030, has quintupled from $2.00 in 2005 to $10.75. How can that be credible?

Second, we are not yet to the point of knowing the final cost of construction for Phase 2 of the Silver Line and, therefore, don't know how high the tolls will really go (as ex-Congressman & MWAA Vice Chairman Tom Davis properly reminds us all).

The consultants' "100% preliminary engineering" cost study was turned into MWAA on February 29, as WaPo's Dana Hedgepeth reported, and MWAA has not yet shared it with its partners, much less the public. We suspect it reports Phase 2 costs are going to be much higher than MWAA forecast a year ago for the now-approved configuration ($3.2 billion).

Why else would MWAA hold this report? Maybe Post reporters can find out.

Finally, the record of Phase 1 suggests that the costs will balloon well beyond those forecast in the cost study MWAA is holding. In fact, the $2.76 billion current price tag for Phase 1 is one-third higher than the comparable "true 100% preliminary engineering" cost study by FTA in 2006.

One-third higher costs would likely mean half-again higher tolls (using Smith's own traffic diversion factors) as more and more people switch to local roads. And there is no doubt that those roads are now overcrowded and deteriorating with current traffic levels.

And the toll burden is not the only issue.

A rail line built on toll road revenue bonds has a substantial risk of failing financially, as have several of the toll roads for which Smith has provided forecasts previously. Two other toll roads that recently added billions to their debt are now in serious financial trouble. It's not clear if default would leave MWAA holding the debt bag, whether it can shift the burden to Virginia which leased the toll road to MWAA, or whether the people of the United States who own the land on which all this is being built and tolled will end up paying.

It also threatens the very reason that Fairfax County wants it built: To stimulate economic development along the corridor and county tax revenues. Simply put, who would want to live or work where it costs an extra $4,000/year or more to drive to work or home?

Reston Citizen Association wants the Silver Line to be built for important transportation and environmental reasons. We just don't believe it can be done successfully on the backs of toll road users alone.  Additional financing means must be found.