DPWES Response to Terry Maynard Query re Incompleteness of Visual and Performing Arts Center (VPAC) "Feasibility Study" and His Brief Response

On July 8, Chris Herrington, Chief of the county's Department of Public Works and Environmental Services (DPWES), responded to the request from Terry Maynard, Reston 20/20, for an explanation of how the presentation provided by the Reston Community Center's (RCC's) consultant could be considered a "feasibility study."  Below is his reply and a brief rejoinder from Terry Maynard.

From: Herrington, Christopher S <christopher.herrington@fairfaxcounty.gov>

To: terrmayn

 

Fri, Jul 8 at 9:03 AM

 

Terry,

I do appreciate your general definition of a feasibility study, but our utilization of the term is dependent on the defined scope of the specific study in question.  Thus, for my department a feasibility study may only assess feasibility regarding specific constraints or objectives and not all aspects of feasibility.  I reviewed this project with our Department of Public Works and Environmental Services team.  The scope of the Reston Arts Center Feasibility Study was to evaluate the potential use of the Boston Properties' Block J site as a 60,000 square foot art center with these specific study goals:   

 

• To evaluate community needs and requirements through a series of focused community outreach meetings for the potential use of the Block J site as an arts center.
• To initiate preliminary art center programming, conceptual design, and approximate cost estimates based on expressed community needs.
• To provide the study findings to assist in the determination of arts center proffer viability prior to the proffer option deadline of July 27, 2022.

 

I find that our feasibility study is consistent with that scope, and that the feasibility study findings align with community needs expressed in a 2018/2019 arts market study and needs analysis, as well as a 2019 community survey.  The study findings have been shared with Supervisor Alcorn, County leadership, and Reston Community Center leadership, for their use in determining the next steps for future development of the Block J site.

As you requested, we will make the feasibility study findings available in a printable format in the coming weeks for use in further community discussions.  I've asked our team to notify you when it is ready.  

Sincerely,

Christopher Herrington, Director

Department of Public Works and Environmental Services

Fairfax County, Virginia

 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Terry Maynard <terrmayn@yahoo.com>

To:Herrington, Christopher S

Cc:Walter Alcorn,John Carter,Leila Gordon, RCC Contact,  Lynne.Mulston, and 12 more

Fri, Jul 8 at 2:41 PM

 

Chris--

Thank you for your reply and your explanation. 

Unfortunately, I think we will have to agree to disagree on what a feasibility study is.  A "feasibility study" has a clear purpose, scope, and result as described in its definition.  The consultant's report does not meet that definition although it does generally meet the demands of the scope of work RCC provided you. 

I am particularly concerned about RCC's reliance on pre-pandemic market surveys to justify the "need" (vice "desire") for an arts center.  I don't think many of us desire to attend public gatherings in the way that we have in the past and it's not clear to me when/if that will change.  Performers, no doubt, would relish the opportunity.

Aside from the effects of the pandemic, I am deeply concerned about the legitimacy of the two market surveys used to justify the "need" for a visual and performing arts center.

• The UVa study sent its questionnaire to 5,500 Reston households, fewer than 1/5 of Reston's 26,000-plus households. In turn, it received responses from fewer than 20% of the 5,500 households it queried.  In short, the survey represented the views of fewer than 8% of Reston's households.  Among the 3500-plus households that did not respond to the survey, my supposition would be that they did not believe an arts center was either a "need" or potentially even a desirable amenity.  Most probably threw away the survey because of a lack of interest in either/both completing the survey or having an arts center.  I certainly wouldn't presume they believe an arts center is a "need," statistically or otherwise.
  

• The subsequent SurveyMonkey survey you mention had only 267 respondents, less than 1/2 percent of Reston's population.  Moreover, as anyone who has used SurveyMonkey knows, SurveyMonkey actually states its results are often not scientifically valid.  And the question structure in the survey was dubious.  For a population Reston's size (Is that the market?), the survey needed nearly 400 responses to achieve a limited +/-5% statistical validity.  These results shouldn't be used to justify a major initiative. 
  

I look forward to Supervisor Alcorn's further steps on this matter and hope that he takes a much deeper look at the value of an arts center, especially in the context of the broad range of true infrastructure needs Reston (and the rest of the county) faces.  In particular, I hope that he seriously considers a significant urban park on the land as Boston Properties alternatively proffered.  It is hugely needed, not just desired, to give any validity to the county's Urban Parks Guidelines--and it's less expensive. 

In the meantime, I look forward to reviewing the written arts center report when it is completed.

Thank you again.

Terry Maynard

LTE: Inadequacy of RCC "Feasibility Study" for Reston Performing Arts Center and Its Costs

 The following is a letter to the editor of the Reston Patch that was published on July 6, 2022.

Dear Editor,

The Reston Community Center’s (RCC’s) consultant working on a “feasibility study” for a visual and performing arts center (VPAC) in Reston reported its findings to the community on June 13. The results were less than satisfactory although I blame RCC and the county for this, not the contractor.

Most basically, the presentation and viewgraphs were not about “feasibility” nor was it a “study.” The “study” was a 31-page PowerPoint presentation with 8-pages of non-substantive introduction at the front end. The “study” covers only a design concept and a limited construction cost projection, nothing on operating costs or economic benefits. It said nothing about market demand beyond the input of about two dozen regular participants in the community engagement meetings, and it seemed to rely on a separate pre-pandemic market survey to justify its limited positive results.

So what does a feasibility study normally incorporate? Here are the topics identified in the table of contents from one feasibility study I reviewed:

• demographic & socioeconomic analysis,
• local and regional facility analysis,
• local & regional group interviews,
• concept (covered) & location recommendations (given), and
• financial & economic analysis including:
  • preliminary construction cost (addressed)
  • operating projections & subsidies
  • funding options
  • economic benefit.

At RCC’s suggestion, I asked Fairfax County’s DPWES [Department of Pubic Works and Environmental Studies] —which supported the VPAC “feasibility study”—for more details last week. Other than an acknowledgement of my request, no response yet. We are a long way from a thorough feasibility study that helps us make a wise decision about whether to proceed and, if we do, how.

Meanwhile, the consultant’s presentation provided a good look at a possible design for a Reston VPAC. Most importantly, while it looked at a possible 700-seat theater — a “moderate” size theater — it could not reasonably fit it into the small space proffered by Boston Properties. It proposes a 500-seat theater with a large stage and orchestra pit and notes, “This house capacity may require adding more performance dates.” Or what?

While the design concept is thorough, only one page is devoted to the cost of the proposed VPAC. That estimated cost is $58 million in current dollars (for a 57,000 GSF VPAC—more than $1,000/GSF) or $81.4 million in 2030. The debt service on that 2030 cost over a 30-year period financing by county industrial bonds would make the total construction cost $136 million.

And that doesn’t cover operating losses, and not-for-profit theaters such as the Reston VPAC routinely cover only about 40% of their operating costs through operating revenues (tickets, concessions, etc.). Based on the pro forma financial analysis in one theater feasibility study I reviewed, it suggests that $500-$600 thousand annually, escalating with inflation, would need to be added to break even. That money must come from public or private sources. And that puts the Reston special tax district (STD#5) back into play whether as the primary source or a supplement to business and arts group giving. There is no indication yet from the county that it won’t put the burden on Reston alone.

It appears the total annual cost of building and operating a Reston VPAC in 2030 will be about $5.3 million, more in the ensuing years. Reston residents and businesses, all part of STD#5, should not be asked to carry that burden. A small model I made of the possible costs to Reston STD#5 taxpayers (see below), if the burden is placed on us, is that the revenue shortfall in 2030 would require RCC to increase the STD#5 tax rate from $.047 to $.062 per $100 valuation — a 31% tax rate hike — if (a) RCC were to sustain its current activities and (b) there were no contributions from elsewhere.

I am certain that I don’t want to spend the extra money each year on taxes to have a Reston VPAC built and operated on the Reston community’s dime, and I doubt that many of your readers do either. This is especially true when Reston has so many more important needs, not just amenities, such as schools, urban parks, and a renewed regional library. The county, specifically Supervisor [Walter] Alcorn who has now taken control of the VPAC initiative, needs to oversee a substantial amount of additional research and analysis on the value of a VPAC, not to mention extensive consulting with the community, before proceeding with it at all. We’ll see whether he ultimately believes it’s worth the county’s investment. It’s not worth Reston’s.

Terry Maynard
Reston

---

Letter: Terry Maynard writes Fairfax County's DPWES that the Reston Visual and Performing Arts Presentation is not a "feasibility study."

Subject:  Reston Arts Center "Feasibility Study" (Project # CC-000024)

From:  Terry Maynard <terrmayn@yahoo.com>

To:  wwwdpwes@fairfaxcounty.gov

Cc:  Walter Alcorn, John Carter, Leila Gordon, Center Stage, Lynne Mulston, Dennis Hays, Bruce Ramo, Linda Ramo, Jennifer Jushchuk, John Mooney, John Mendonca, RA-BODPresident@reston.org,RA-BODSecretary@reston.org, Bob Petrine, info@RCAreston.org, michael.oconnell@patch.com, Tammi Petrine

 

Tue, Jun 21 at 8:40 PM

 

Dear Mr. Herrington,

I have been involved in an e-mail exchange with Leila Gordon, D/RCC, about the self-described "feasibility study" for a potential Reston Virtual & Performing Arts Center (VPAC).  Although she said she would send my questions to your department, she didn't, choosing to give her usual non-answers back to me.  (Correction: Ms. Gordon subsequently informed me that she had sent the questions to your office.)

The nub of my concern is that the presentation and video presented to the community last week was not a "feasibility study."  In fact, there is no "study" to read and understand and consider.  Here is a good definition of a "feasibility study": 

A feasibility study is an analysis that considers all of a project's relevant factors—including economic, technical, legal, and scheduling considerations—to ascertain the likelihood of completing the project successfully.

Whether a project is feasible or not can depend on several factors, including the project's cost and return on investment, meaning whether the project generated enough revenue or sales from consumers. (Investopedia)

I think you will agree that the presentation and the video do not meet the requirements of this definition (or any other).  What I saw is no more than a capture of the wishes of a limited number of Restonians (& I attended some of the meetings) optimized to the constraints of a 60,000GSF building.  (Actually, it's a 57,000GSF building as the minute footnote states.  And the visual arts "gallery" is a minuscule corner of the building.) There is no competitive analysis, there is no demographic analysis, there is no financial risk analysis, there is no funding source(s) analysis, etc.  And, from my perspective, it also fails to take into any consideration the several other higher priority needs in Reston:  a new elementary school to ease overcrowding, a long overdue new Reston regional library, and a Hunter Mill District recreation facility (the only magisterial district without one).

The fact of the matter is the G&P product is nothing more than a sales device.  There is no analysis, no balance in this "study" at all.  It short sells the county and/or RCC that funded it, it short sells the community that expected and deserves a thorough and balanced real feasibility study, and it virtually promises a poor decision on whether to proceed and, if so, how. 

As a Reston resident, I hope that you will see the need and value of proceeding immediately with a complete, thorough, and balanced VPAC feasibility study to protect yourselves and the Reston community. 

Thank you in advance for your consideration.

Sincerely,

Terry Maynard

Reston, VA

NBC4: Suit Moves Forward Alleging Fairfax County Officers Protected Sex Traffickers

Following up on motions to dismiss by the FCPD defendants, Federal Judge Anthony Trenga ruled that the case may proceed.  Here is how NBC4 reported the development:

A federal judge ruled Wednesday that a lawsuit against two former police officers accused of protecting a sex trafficking ring in Northern Virginia in exchange for sex can move forward.

The former Fairfax County officers, Michael O. Barbazette of Manassas and Jason J. Mardocco of Gainesville, had asked a judge at a hearing Friday in U.S. District Court in Alexandria to have the case tossed out.

In a ruling issued Wednesday, Judge Anthony Trenga rejected the motion to dismiss. He did toss out some counts on technical issues but is allowing the plaintiff to file an amended complaint that will comply with the technical failings and allows the substantive accusations to move forward intact.

The case alleges five named and more unnamed FCPD officers, including then Acting Chief Ed Roessler, participated in and/or protected a sex trafficking ring.  

Fairfax County Attorney's office files motion for dismissal in federal case against several FCPD officers for their involement in sex trafficking

 In October 2021, a federal lawsuit was filed against several Fairfax County Police Department (FCPD) officers for their involvement in a sex trafficking ring involving Jane Doe. The officers, none of whom are now with FCPD, are Deputy Chief Edwin Roessler (retired), James Baumstark (now a deputy chief with the Ashville, NC, Police Department), Vincent Scianna, Jason Mardocco, and Michael Barbazette.   The Senior Assistant County Attorney for Fairfax County states, in a motion to dismiss the case on March 21, 2022, that there are five legal arguments applying to some or all of the defendants that warrant the dismissal of the case.

This link will take you to the 15-pp. Fairfax County motion on Scribd.

Is a Performance Venue the Best Way to Spend $92 Million in added Reston Taxes?

 (This is a slightly edited version of a commentary published in Reston Patch this week.  The edits include the addition of a couple of examples of cost per square foot for performing arts centers as shown in blue ink below.) 

In recent weeks, the Reston Community Center (RCC), has called on Restonians to finance the building and operation of a Reston visual and performing arts center (RVPAC) on land proffered by Boston Properties.  It has set up “public meetings” in mid-February and beyond to achieve that end.

The RCC effort is not being driven by any need for such a center nor in consideration of the many others legitimate needs of this community.  RCC has its own small performance venue, the high school has a larger auditorium, and outdoor performances are routine at the Town Center.  Within in 10 miles of Reston, major performance and visual venues exist Wolf Trap and its Barns and the new Capital One Center at Tysons.  A website of Washington area visual and performing arts centers shows that Hunter Mill District already has 19% of all the performance venues in Fairfax County, the most of any county magisterial district.  Neighboring Dranesville and Sully districts add another 19% share to county venues.  For a real night out adventure, Washington, DC, has myriad performance and arts centers.  The point is the visual and performing arts are readily available to Restonians now. 

A 2019 “scientific” survey conducted by the University of Virginia on RCC’s behalf on Restonians’ view of such a RVPAC showed that only 38% of the respondents were supportive or very supportive of an RVPAC financed only by Restonians, not close to a majority of the sample.  Moreover, that is 38% of the self-selecting 1,906 respondents out of 5,500 queried in the survey.  In short, three percent of Reston’s 63,226 population were allowed to speak for our community in a survey designed to generate positive responses.  That is hardly sufficient justification for pursuing a multi-million dollar initiative through added taxes on Restonians.

Nonetheless, RCC is proceeding with its public meetings to determine what Restonians want in their RVPAC—not whether they want one nor how much they are willing to pay.   Trying to achieve dreams without first considering financial limitations is a recipe for fiscal disaster.   In fact, if Restonians are to pay for the construction and operation of a VPAC, RCC needs to first determine how much Restonians can and will pay for that “want.”

What is on the table is building a 60,000 square foot visual and performing arts center on land proffered by Boston Properties in Reston Town Center per Reston Connection.   An extensive Google search of performance arts center design and build costs shows an extreme range of costs per square foot, current costs ranging from about $300/sf to $2,000/sf in one case.   The range is largely attributable to the elegance of the venue and the extent of its ancillary facilities.  In fact, at this point, expecting design, build, and equip current costs of $1,000/sf is a reasonable preliminary estimate for planning a well-fitted, but not ostentatious, VPAC.  That means a Reston VPAC would cost an estimated $60 million to build—and, of course, more to operate. 

A couple of examples:

·        Tysons’ new Capital One Center cost about $960/sf ($120 million total) for its two venues—a 1,600 person principal theater and a 225-person “box theater”--in a 125,000 sf facility.  It also has an amphitheater on its campus.

·        A newly built PAC on a college campus in Chula Vista, CA cost $66 million to design, build, and equip.  It includes a 540-seat performance theater and a 151-seat “box theater” plus other small instructional and support spaces.  The building has 48,576 square feet gross floor area, meaning it cost $1,076/gsf.  It was funded by two general obligation bonds through two regional referendums, not by the college nor Chula Vista alone. 

A reasonable planning assumption, one used by the county, for an RVPAC would be to assume the interest rate of three percent on a AAA general obligation bond.  At a 3%/year interest, Restonians would have to pay an additional $3.1 million annually to the Reston special tax district ($91.8 million over 30 years), increasing current RCC annual tax revenue needs by one-third.   

Is paying $91.8 million over 30 years for a visual and performance venue the best use of Restonians’ STD#5 community or even county property tax funds?  I certainly don’t believe so.  I suspect that is also the reason that Supervisor Alcorn hasn’t taken this idea on as a county initiative.  In fact, at least three other important areas in Reston need that money: d

·        New Reston schools to accommodate the 20,000 new students planned to live in Reston in the next 30 years according to the Reston Master Plan and FCPS student yield models. 

·       New parks in and immediately around the increasingly intensely developed Reston transit station areas to give some legitimacy to the county’s urban park guidelines.  There are virtually no parks for the 90,000 people planned to live there, just wall-to-wall concrete.  Boston Properties’ proffer specifically identifies a park as an option to a VPAC.

·     A new Reston Regional Library to replace the dilapidated, outdated and inadequate one at Town Center North.

I encourage all Reston residents to attend and participate in RCC’s upcoming public meeting at 6:30PM on February 14^th at RCC.  Let them know what you think should be Reston taxpayers’ investment priorities.  After all, RCC is trying to decide how to spend some $92 million of your money, not theirs.

 

RCC plans meetings to discuss building a Reston Performing Arts Center without noting funding issues.

A recent RestonNow article presented a mildly edited press release from the Reston Community Center noting a series of upcoming meetings to discuss what should be included in a Reston Performing Arts Center (RPAC). Terry Maynard responded with an extended comment that noted the article and press release did not mention any cost or financing issues in its construction. Below is a slightly updated version of his comments: 

What neither this article nor the RCC press release behind it say is that this project, if built, would be paid for ONLY by the residents of Reston through the Reston Special Tax District (STD#5). It could cost hundreds of millions to build and tens of millions each year to support. I'm sure that neither RCC (Leila Gordon) or Supervisor Alcorn mentioned that fact. Nonetheless, the first step taken by any prudent executive re a proposal is to examine its feasibility. In fact, it's a fiduciary responsibility. To proceed otherwise is to make a decision based on dangerously incomplete information. 

If you dig deep enough in the County webpage on this project, you will learn that, if BosProp doesn't build the venue (it has only offered the property, not the construction), it will take an STD#5 bond referendum to build it. (Presentation of July 26, 2021, two years after the underlying survey was conducted) In a survey question asking "Do you support RCC financing the building of a new arts venue by means of a bond issue?" only 38% said they were supportive or very supportive.  It should be noted that this questionnaire was responded to by only four percent of Reston's households, according to the US Census

A comment about that question's phraseology: It phrases the question as "RCC financing" the construction when, in fact, it would be "Reston residents financing" or "STD#5 financing." It is not money from the county or manna, just us. 

Based on the experience at Tysons with the Capital One Performance Center, we may reasonably expect an RPAC to cost $100 million to build. Assuming (generously) that a 30-year loan issued today for that construction could be obtained and RCC could garner a AAA bond rating like the county, the annual cost to Restonians to pay off that bond would be more than $5 million. For 2022, RCC's proposed budget is less than $9 million, so the construction alone would increase RCC's tax revenue needs by more than half. This would require an increase in the STD#5 tax rate, contrary to a statement by RCC Chief Leila Gordon in 2019. 

We've seen how similar ill-considered acquisition efforts have been sold by local officials, for example, the RA purchase of the Tetra property. You can bet Leila Gordon and RCC will use every trick in the book to sell this one. 

It is ludicrous to think that such a burden should be placed on Restonians alone or even on the county when we so many other higher priority needs that are going unfilled, including the 20,000 additional kids needing schools under the current Reston Master Plan.  Parks nearby to accommodate the 90,000 additional new TSA residents will also be needed, but are unbudgeted, even unplanned for.

In case you are concerned about a cultural vacuum nearby, Capital One has built a performance center at Tysons--8 miles away--with a 1,600 person capacity main theater, a small theater, and an amphitheater all easily reached by Metro. FYI--it cost at least $120 million to build.