Editorial: Silver Line forecasts are way off, Washington Examiner, November 21, 2012

In 2004, the Federal Transit Administration concluded that the Dulles Rail project was not cost effective, because population densities in the corridor to be served were less than half those required to support heavy rail. . .

. . . We already know that MWAA's 2009 estimate of employment and population growth in Fairfax County was wildly inaccurate, overshooting the final 2010 census numbers by 52 percent. The pro-transit Reston Citizens Association's 2020 Committee has also questioned MWAA's economic forecasts and is now making some predictions of its own:

* Over the next 40 years, population and employment growth in the Dulles Corridor will be lower than predicted;

* There's a 67 percent chance that MWAA's annual revenue forecasts will not be met, with 25 percent shortfalls possible in 40 years;

* 30,000 vehicles will divert from the Dulles Toll Road (Note:  in 2013 if tolls went to $4.50 as initially envisioned) to escape exorbitantly high tolls needed to fund Phase 2.

If the RCA is right, employment and growth rates in the Dulles Corridor will be much lower than the levels optimistically predicted by the outdated "Dulles model" from before the Great Recession, before the threat of sequestration and before density downsizing in Loudoun County. That will affect ridership. . .

. . . There is only one word for a project that costs $2.7 billion and creates more traffic congestion rather than less: insane. The FTA got it right the first time. The feds should spend scarce TIFIA funds on projects that make more economic sense.

We stand by our forecasts mentioned above that were all made months ago.  They were all based on the February 2012 CDMSmith traffic and revenue forecast performed for MWAA which assumed no outside aid to Silver Line construction.

We do not agree, however, with the Examiner editorial's conclusion that MWAA should not receive TIFIA funding for Silver Line construction.  Indeed, failure to provide substantial TIFIA funding for Phase 2 Metrorail construction will only make the economic consequences worse for the Dulles Corridor from Tysons to Loudoun County.   In its simplest terms, the more TIFIA funding used for Metrorail, the less Dulles Toll Road tolls will rise, and the greater the opportunity for some economic growth along the Dulles Corridor while toll road users and developers in the station areas' special tax districts still pay for the bulk of the Silver Line's construction.

And still the currenty 100,000 daily users of the toll road will need ample additional aid from future federal and state funding efforts to assure some degree of prosperity along the Silver Line.