TOLLSROADSnews.com, an independent online journal for the toll roads industry, reported on the recent presentation to the MWAA Finance Committee of CDMSmith/Wilbur Smith Associates latest traffic and revenue forecast for the Dulles Toll Road. It says in part:
. . . The results of the CDMSmith Dulles Toll Road update released today show quite trivial revisions on the revenue projections of the WSA-2009 report.
Based on a near doubling of the present $2.25 toll (16.1c/mile) next year to $4.50 (32.1c/mile) traffic would drop from the current 99.9m 18% to 81.9m and revenues would rise 71% from $103.5m now to $177.1m.
In 2018 the full trip toll would rise another 50% to $6.75, traffic would drop 8% and revenues would rise 39%.
In 2023 tolls would rise another 30% but traffic would decline a mere one percent so revenues would rise virtually the same as tolls.
In the 2020s and 2030s higher tolls would be accompanied by small increases in traffic. . . .
. . . The presentation today does claim there has been independent review of socioeconomic growth assumptions, new traffic counts and revised trip information, and use of the latest metro area (MWCOG) model. And, they say, significant new data collection, research and analysis by CDMSmith.
But the changes in results from the 2009 report are quite minor - just 2 or 3% lower each year through 2014, then 6 to 11%, all conveniently made up in higher projections beyond 2028.
(RCA Board member Terry) Maynard told us today he's reserving comment until he has had time to examine the update.
Meanwhile it looks just as flimsy to us as the previous forecasts, and still not reconciled with far more conservative forecasts for Virginia DOT back in 2006 when VDOT ran the toll road. . . .
Click here for the full article.
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