Why Fairfax County taxes and density will go up while services decline

An article in Bloomberg News from last October notes that Fairfax County has seen its pension portfolio perform better than any other large pension fund in the United States--a 19.3% AAGR since 2009!--but it has still added $1.5 billion in pension reserve shortfalls since 2005.  That is a $1.7 billion dollar shortfall on the County's principal retirement fund valued at $3.6 billion (i.e.--a 32% shortfall) and more than a half-billion dollar shortfall in its school system pension fund.  And those shortfalls are for the BEST performing big pension fund in the country!

To start meeting the shortfall, last year the Board of Supervisors "agreed to boost the funding ratio to 91 percent over the next 15 years from about 70 percent now. To close the gap, Fairfax County is counting on investment results rather than bigger contributions." 

Well, "if wishes were horses, beggars would ride. . . ."

I'd count on higher taxes, more density (especially in the "urbanizing" areas of the county--whether you want it or not), and fewer services.  Tysons density increases and tax hikes--and maybe the same in Reston soon--and County library and park funding and service cuts are indicative of the trend. 

The article is a fascinating and infrequent glimpse into the state of the County's financial affairs.  I strongly recommend you read it.   Check it out!