$17 tolls: Myth or reality?, Fairfax Times, October 7, 2011

In the subject article, Kali Schumitz, Fairfax Times staff writer, reports on the recent 32nd District debate between incumbent Janet Howell and her Republican challenger, Patrick Forrest:

As stakeholders continue to figure out how to pay for the second phase of the Dulles rail project, there has been growing concern from toll road commuters about how much of the project will be paid for with tolls.

Feeding off of that concern, Republican state Senate candidate Patrick Forrest has made the spectre of toll hikes a centerpiece of his campaign to unseat longtime Sen. Janet Howell (D-32nd). He has launched a separate petition website to oppose higher tolls and has posted campaign-style signs near the Dulles Toll Road reading “No $17 Tolls.”

“There is something to be said for raising the issue,” Forrest said. “Positive effects come about when politicians feel pressured.”

But Howell and others say it is inaccurate to portray $17 tolls as a reality.

Like MWAA Vice Chairman Tom Davis says, "No one knows what the tolls will be."

BUT, if the current financing agreement stands among MWAA, Loudoun, and Fairfax counties without massive infusions of federal and/or state money (billions, not millions, of dollars) and MWAA plans to pay the $3.5 billion or more debt it will incur to pay for the full construction of the Dulles rail line, the full toll on the Dulles Toll Road will be more than $10 and could be $20-plus within 17 years depending on assumptions on ridership, interest rates, etc.--that's a better than three-fold in increase in "real" or "present value" (PV) terms allowing for inflation.  Even MWAA--which has never OVER-estimated the cost of the rail line--has made this projection.  (See the "without TIFIA"--cheap federal money--in the viewgraph below.)

Dulles Corridor Metrorail Project:  Update on USDOT Process and Proposal, MWAA, July 11, 2011.