If you're a commuter in one of the increasing number of major metro areas that have implemented HOT lanes — express tolls for single-occupancy vehicles — you might already know how effective they can be for bypassing traffic. But these lanes were also promised to the public as a new road funding mechanism, pitched as a way to pay for long-delayed road maintenance or big public projects. In that regard, you might say that so far HOT lanes have come up rather cold.
The poor revenue performance of express tolls, while perhaps not universal, has certainly formed a disturbing trend. According to news reports, Virginia's new HOT lanes on Washington, D.C.'s Beltway lost $11.3 million in their first six weeks, Houston's I-45 and U.S. 59 express lanes haven't covered their costs, and Atlanta's I-85 tolls fell short of the lowest fiscal forecasts. The most egregious offender may be SR-167 in metro Seattle, whose actual earnings fall consistently and astonishingly below revenue expectations:
And, yes, you guessed it: The pathetic "actual' HOT lane toll revenue performance in this graphic is tracked against several projections laid out by Wilbur Smith Associates, now CDM/Smith, in a 2006 traffic and revenue analysis for the state of Washington. And this is one we hadn't examined in our detailed assessment of WSA's forecasting record two years ago. The article (link in first line) details some of the reasons why this forecast failed abysmally.
It certainly doesn't inspire much confidence in CDM/Smith's most recent study for the Dulles Toll Road, which already projects tolls skyrocketing to more than $18 one way.
Its noteworthy that CDM/Smith is not alone: Transurban, which just built the I-495 HOT lanes in northern Virginia, seems to be having the same problems--and its efforts have all been since the Great Recession.
Why do people believe this toll road traffic and revenue forecasts--EVER???
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