Steven Pearlstein: For development, all signs point inward, Washington Post, January 14, 2012

Business reporter Steven Pearlstein provides a regional overview of future growth in the Washington metropolitan area that, as he says, "the next phase of growth in the Washington region will focus on these underdeveloped areas in the eastern quadrants of the District and some of the region’s older, closer-in suburbs."  The excellent article is available here.

Here are a few key thoughts I took from his piece: 

It’s not just smart-growth planners and anti-sprawl activists who think (that the focus will be in DC and east per above); most developers I’ve spoken with in recent weeks agree. The models for the future, they say, can be found in Pentagon City rather than Dale City, along the Rosslyn-Ballston corridor rather than the far reaches of the Dulles corridor, in the NOMA area near Union Station and the downtowns of Bethesda and Silver Spring. The pressure of development now points inward toward the Capitol, not outward toward Germantown, Gainesville, Waldorf and Laurel.

(Comment:  If true, this bodes ill for development along the Dulles Corridor--including Reston--and runs contrary to Fairfax County leadership thinking, planning, and investment.)

The same fate (as closure of White Flint's Bloomies and the vacancies in Georgetown Park) is in store for the suburban office park that, not so many years ago, was the bread and butter of the commercial real estate business in Washington. Workers no longer prefer to work in them, companies no longer want to occupy them, banks no longer will finance them, real estate investment trusts no longer want to own them and planning boards have become reluctant to approve them. In the future, developers say, offices will be part of mixed-used developments, with shops, restaurants, schools, day-care centers and doctors’ offices, preferably within walking or biking distance of condos, townhouses and Metro stops.

(Comment:  This is consistent with goals the RTF--and Tysons TF--are pursuing, although the term "mixed-use" is much more office-oriented in developers' eyes than in citizens groups views.  "Mixed-use" is one of those terms that means very different things to different people.)

Traditionally, one advantage of the “infill” development is that it can leverage existing infrastructure — roads, Metro, street lights, water, sewer, parks — without the need for new investment. But today, adding significant density in many instances may require expanding the capacity of that infrastructure, which can get pretty expensive and generate plenty of community opposition.

(Comment:  From an RCA Reston 2020 perspective, the Reston 2020 very much wants--no, insists--that the infrastructure be expanded to handle the increased density in Reston transit-oriented development (TOD) areas.  We do not oppose re-development within reason linked to complementary infrastructure development.  As outlined in its planning principles, sustaining (if not improving) the infrastructure on a "per capita" basis in Reston is imperative to sustaining the community's excellent quality of life.)

 Virginia and the District probably don’t need such heavy-handed intervention (as in Prince George's County), but they should consider the possibility of special taxing and redevelopment districts, such as the one used to finance the extension of Metro to Dulles International Airport. It is reasonable to ask landowners who will realize windfalls from infrastructure to help pay for these public investments, and in the current political environment it is folly to think that other taxpayers will agree to do so.

(Comment:  RCA Reston 2020 couldn't agree more.  We are pleased that Fairfax County has taxed businesses along the Dulles Rail route to help cover the costs of that endeavor, although we are concerned that the cap on those taxes may be inadequate to cover the costs.  On the other hand, the County is now trying to force about 2/3 of the cost of infrastructure development in Tysons on to the public, rather than on to the businesses that will profit from the business that new infrastructure will bring.)