Letter: White paper offers no answers for feasibility of rail line’s second phase, Fairfax Times, July 15, 2011, Rob Whitfield

On July 3, Peter Rogoff, administrator of the Federal Transit Administration, issued a “White Paper Regarding (U.S. Department of Transportation Secretary Ray) LaHood’s Proposed Scope Reductions” for Dulles Rail Phase 2.

The Metropolitan Washington Airports Authority Phase 2 capital cost estimate, released in September 2010, was $3.825 billion versus the previously budgeted Phase 2 cost estimate of $2.5 billion based on the "Locally Preferred Alternative" accepted by the FTA in 2005.

The "initial new cost estimate" under the federal government proposal is $2.767 billion. A net $552 million in cost savings would result from building an above-ground station at Dulles Airport rather than the originally proposed underground one, which also would require more than one mile of tunnels. Despite the favoring of an above-ground station at Dulles by the Virginia partners, its Congressional delegation, Gov. Robert F. McDonnell (R), D.C. Mayor Vincent Gray (D) and even Maryland Gov. Martin O'Malley (D), the MWAA Board maintains its position regarding a underground station.

The original preferred alternative plan was for rail car yard and maintenance shop facilities at Dulles designed for 250 rail cars — even though only 128 rail cars are planned for use in both phases of the Silver Line. In the white paper, $81 million in cost savings are proposed by reducing the scope of the maintenance facilities to service 184 rail cars. It might be true that as many as one quarter of Metrorail cars are "out of service" because of technical and mechanical problems at any one time, but no justification ever has been given for planning a maintenance facility at least five times the size reasonably needed to serve the Silver Line. Could it be that the Maryland, D.C. and inside-the-Beltway Northern Virginia Board representatives of the Washington Metropolitan Area Transit Authority view residents of Fairfax and Loudoun counties as cash cows for their never-ending demands for transit subsidies?

The white paper proposes $235 million in "savings" by transferring responsibility for building five parking facilities to Fairfax and Loudoun counties. A further $136 million would be "saved" by having Fairfax County responsible for building the Route 28 station. How transferring $371 million in costs to the localities represents a real savings is beyond understanding.

Loudoun County has not offered to pay anything so far toward Route 28 station costs or provide for Metrorail parking or kiss-and-ride facilities there. The station location is at the Loudoun County boundary and property owners on the north side of the Dulles Toll Road near the Center for Innovative Technology would be major beneficiaries from the station when it is built.

This week, it became clear that the U.S. Department of Transportation proposal offers no real solutions to the Dulles Rail Phase 2 funding problems.

In his presentation to the Fairfax County Board of Supervisors on Tuesday, Rogoff did not pull a rabbit out of his hat. He did not offer federal grants for Phase 2 but indicated the project might meet the criteria for unspecified funding. He asked for shared sacrifices from the funding partners, but offered no sacrifices from the federal government or the dominant peak-period users of Metrorail, federal workers. Rogoff claimed that because of the credit-worthiness of both Fairfax and Loudoun, the counties would be eligible for as much as five times the amount of federal Transportation Infrastructure Finance and Innovation Act loan funding but did not explain how, why or when, the potential terms offered and what would be the net impact in terms of reduced tolls on the Dulles Toll Road.

Even at a $2.5 billion cost, the economic and financial feasibility of Phase 2 has yet to be demonstrated by government officials.

Rogoff indicated Tuesday that no new rail ridership forecasts are needed because Phase 2 is not being funded under the "new starts" program. The MWAA final design for Phase 2 is expected to be completed by September but would be delayed to December if MWAA accedes to the above-ground alignment for which an environmental assessment will be required. The Dulles Toll Road traffic and revenue forecast is being updated by MWAA, including time-of-day toll pricing analyses and will be completed by December.

Although a federal white paper has been offered for Phase 2, the financial consequences for those of us who live and work in the Dulles Corridor remain unclear and many unanswered questions remain for those who drive the Dulles Toll Road.

Rob Whitfield, Dulles Corridor Users Group, Reston