So Where Are Those New Reston Kids Going to School?

One of the main concerns many Restonians have expressed about the excessive planned growth of Reston—and the proposed density increase in the Reston PRC area—is whether our public school system has planned adequately to handle the Reston children they serve.   Understanding those impacts and Fairfax County Public School’s (FCPS’) concrete planning to meet that enrollment growth is vital to determining the reasonableness of the proposed increase in the Reston PRC’s density from 13 to 16 persons per acre.

The short answer:  FCPS is not even close to understanding the impacts, much less having serious plans (including land and funding) to meet the needs, of the growth in Reston’s school enrollment.

An internal FCPS planning memorandum analyzing the impact of the redevelopment of Campus Commons (at the intersection of Sunrise Valley and Wiehle), indicates that the county school system expects redevelopment there to generate 123-125 new students.   More importantly, the memorandum goes on to take a broader look at future elementary school enrollment from those Reston projects already approved or pending and indicates FCPS expects a total of 3,000-3,200 new students in Reston’s schools over the next 20-30 years, including 1,600-1,800 new elementary school students (see table).   

The memo suggests these new elementary school students would be assigned as follows:

• Sunrise Valley Elementary School:  844-918 new students
• Lake Anne Elementary School:  602-656 new students
• Dogwood Elementary School:  226 new students.

Yes, you read that right.  FCPS is suggesting it can put some 900 new students in Sunrise Valley ES, a school with a capacity of 750 students that is already running near capacity.  At Lake Anne ES, the suggested added enrollment would nearly double the school’s rolls—and it’s already over capacity.  Even the more moderate increase suggested for Dogwood would increase its nearly 900 student enrollment by a quarter, and that school too is over capacity.   In fact, the average elementary school capacity in Reston now is about 800 students while average enrollment exceeds that capacity by about 10% according to FCPS calculations.

We surmise that the FCPS elementary school forecasts are hypothetical in their school assignments.  There are other ways to address this growth.  First, some of those students could be sent to other relatively nearby schools if they were upgraded, including Terraset, Hunters Woods (which is well over capacity), and Forest Edge. 

Second, FCPS could add more trailers and/or change school boundaries to spread the pain more equitably as it often does.   Neither of these options is desirable.

Third, FCPS could actually build new schools serving Reston’s children.  There is much talk about this, but no discernible action, most importantly the acquisition of ever more costly land needed to build schools.  There is only vague language in the Reston plan about a new elementary school in Town Center North (on county land) and another near USGS. 

The same situation applies to Reston’s middle and high schools, Langston Hughes and South Lakes.  Langston Hughes, with an enrollment of about 1,000 students, could see 500-600 new students added by county estimates.   South Lakes, whose capacity and enrollment are both expanding to about 2,700 within a year, could see another 800-900 students added to its enrollment. 

The Reston plan intimates that a new middle and high school could be built sometime, but not in Reston.  “A middle school and a high school to the west of Reston, potentially in the Innovation Center area, would be well located to relieve overcrowding in existing schools as well as serve planned growth,” says the plan.   The language doesn’t even suggest these new middle and high schools “should be” built—standard plan language for a recommendation—just that they “would be well located.”  They would be better located in Reston.

The vagueness of the Reston plan language is highlighted by the contrast with Tysons’ plan for schools, which calls for developers to work with FCPS and contribute land for this purpose.   Indeed, one developer has already proffered land for construction of an elementary school there circa 2030.  Another elementary school and secondary school expansion are planned there by 2050.

For the record, based on the Reston plan—and counting affordable and bonus housing potential—and county methods for enrollment planning, we expect that Reston’s total public school enrollment could grow by more than 5,000 students over the 40-year course of the plan.  Our breakout of that sum is as follows:

• Elementary schools:  2,870-2,920 vs. the county estimate of 1,672-1,800
• Middle schools:  879-889 vs. the county estimate of 516-556
• High schools:  1,435-1,451 vs. the county estimate of 836-900

In short, using county forecast methods, we anticipate that Reston school enrollment will likely grow by more than half as much—5,000 vs. 3,000 students—than the county is now forecasting.

The bottom line is that FCPS’ student enrollment forecast and the language of the Reston plan combined with the proposed nearly 40,000 person increase in Reston’s PRC density is a recipe for educational disaster.  

So we ask as a starting point:

•  What concrete plans does FCPS have to add a new elementary school or two in Reston within the next decade or so to meet its forecast need to accommodate 1,600-plus new students?
• What boundary changes does FCPS plan to accommodate the growth of the school population in the Dulles Corridor?
• Are developer proffers adequate to acquire land and pay for the construction of two new elementary schools as well as a new middle and high school west of Reston?  
• Does FCPS anticipate having the funding to operate new schools at the expected levels of performance when they are built?

No doubt there are many other questions that need to be raised and addressed before the county moves forward with its proposed re-zoning of the Reston PRC area that would allow the growth in Reston’s student population.

The key point is that the County has next to no idea how its proposed increase in Reston’s density will affect the quality of life in our community, in this case, the vital issue of our children’s education.  Until it fully understands that impact and moves concretely to address it, it has no moral or other basis for proposing a substantial change in Reston’s zoning, especially a change that would increase its population potential by half.

Terry Maynard, Co-Chair

Reston 20/20 Committee