Revised County Count and Forecast for Reston Jobs and Households

Below is a table reflecting DPZ's latest count of Reston jobs and households by area:  The suburban center (the Phase I study area) and the rest of the Planned Residential Community (PRC) area, including the total.  The 2010 count is based on latest MWCOG traffic analysis zones (TAZs), some of them prorated since the TAZ and PRC boundaries do not precisely coincide. 

The two 2030 forecasts use the same TAZ approach, but are based on alternative futures:  the forecast as presented under the County's current Comprehensive Plan, and the forecast as proposed under the RTF "Scenario G"--the current task force proposal for Reston development.  As can be seen, the jobs and household numbers both increase under Scenario G, especially in the "suburban center."

We have used the DPZ data to look at the population in Reston, both now an in 2030.  We extrapolated from the DPZ data by using the assumed 2 persons per household in the suburban center and the balance at the Census 2010 number of 2.28 persons per household for the entirety of Reston.  As a result, the forecast Reston population may be a little low although the size of households is expected to shrink in the decades ahead.

The most important ramifications of this new data are it (a) corrects DPZ's earlier estimate that the jobs:housing ratio community-wide was 3.5 (versus 2.5) and (b) that a community-wide J:HH ratio "target" of 3.0:1 was appropriate.  At this week's RTF meeting, DPZ said it would revise the target ratio "to around 2.5:1."

Note:  If any readers are interested in the full EXCEL workbook DPZ used to generate its forecast (a breakout by TAZ), please contact me by e-mail at terrmayn@yahoo.com.  I would be glad to share it. 

The DPZ data below is in light blue.  The R2020 population data is in salmon.

   Summary of Revised DPZ Data for Reston Now and in 2030 by Terry Maynard