Column: High Density Without Infrastructure Not a Problem, John Lovaas, Reston Connection, June 26, 2012

The following is an excerpt from John Lovaas' latest commentary on the Reston Task Force:

. . . On June 12, the Task Force convened to receive a vital transportation analysis (due 18 months earlier). The analysis was to be a framework for part one of the Task Force’s work within which to shape future land uses and limits for the areas around three new rail stations. Instead, it was presented in a preliminary, incomplete state well after the Task Force has formulated, but still not adopted, high density land-use plans for the Dulles Corridor/rail line area. It is a classic case of building a cart—sort of—to precede a horse with two bad legs.

The fundamental conclusions of the half-baked analysis are that if all of the transportation infrastructure conceived of by planners were in fact completely built and ready to go within the 20-year time horizon of a new Master Plan with visions of high density sugar plums, it would be insufficient to support the massive new construction. That is, traffic would be congested at levels the staff could not adequately express. And there’s another catch! As the transportation and planning staffs of the county were forced to admit, the bulk of the infrastructure is not likely to be even approved for funding much less built within the planning horizon. The infrastructure envisioned but not likely within 20 years includes four more crossings of the Dulles Access Road/rail line at South Lakes Drive, Soapstone Drive, Town Center, and Rock Hill Road. . . .

The key point is that Mr. Lovaas' assessment is on the mark.  The key assumption--and one that is truly unlikely--is that the area along the Dulles Corridor will actually grow at the stupendous rates the scenario ("Scenario E" for those who are keepin track) allows.  I would add only that three task force members, including myself, once again highlighted the need to include implementation and phasing considerations--such as tying development to in-place infrastructure--in the planning process.  The County staff still refuses to do so and, in this writer's opinion, that jeopardizes the viability of the plan proposal even after two and a half year's  of work. 

I strongly encourage you all to read the rest of this article here.  It shows how divorced from reality the Task Force effort is becoming.