WASHINGTON — A dispute over the revenue projections for the Dulles Toll Road provides the backdrop for a hearing the Fairfax County, Va., Board of Supervisors is preparing to hold March 20 to decide whether to approve the next phase of construction on an associated rail line.
The revenues will back the bonds used to help finance the construction of the transit rail line.
Terry Maynard of the Reston Citizens Association, of Reston, Va., released a study in late January that was critical of the toll road revenue projections produced during the past few years by CDM Smith on behalf of the Metropolitan Washington Airports Authority.
The firm’s projections — issued in 2005, 2009 and 2012 — show much different levels of expected revenue. The 2005 projection shows the road collecting $141.7 million in toll revenue for 2020, while the 2009 study shows the same road generating $219.9 million that year. In the 2012 projection, the number is $256.6 million. . . .
. . . The variation seen in the Dulles Toll Road projectons does not shock Standard & Poor’s analyst Todd Spence. “It’s not unusual,” he said. “It’s unfortunate.”
A January rating by S&P placed the road’s primary revenue bonds at BBB-plus, which Spence said “reflects our concerns associated with the Dulles Toll Road’s significant leveraging, MWAA’s reliance on continued revenue growth to support the debt levels, and the potential for cost overruns associated with the rail extension.” . . .
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