Here's some of what he has to say:
At the Oct. 25 MWAA Dulles Toll Road public meeting held in Reston, a "Dulles Corridor Financial Update" was provided including a forecast of "Anticipated Toll Revenue Bond (TRB) Debt Service" as part of the "Dulles Corridor Enterprise Finance Plan." You can see for yourself at www.metwashairports.com/tollroad/1147.htm.
The MWAA finance plan now calls for Dulles Toll Road users to pay $1.1 billion annually by 2058 with more than $700 million annually required for TRB debt service. By contrast, total planned federal capital contribution to Dulles Rail Phase 1 is only $900 million, spread over most of a decade.
The new MWAA estimates represent a near doubling in total finance costs to DTR users. At 2009 public hearings prior to approving DTR toll increases for the years 2010 to 2012, MWAA projected maximum gross toll revenues needed of more than $500 million in the 2040s, up from the $65 million collected in 2009 and the $90 million projected for 2010.
In its August 2009 bond prospectus to investors in DTR revenue bonds, MWAA forecasted that, by 2040, toll road users will be paying $6.25 at the main toll plaza and $3.75 at each ramp. Today, drivers pay $1 at the main plaza and 75 cents at other ramps.
No similar figures and underlying assumptions have yet been provided by MWAA for its latest cost forecasts but it appears that main plaza tolls by the 2040s are projected at more than $10 and ramp tolls at more than $7 (emphasis added). . . .
. . . If government leaders insist on moving forward with the infeasible and uneconomic Phase 2 of Dulles Rail, then as a first step in providing equitable treatment to DTR users, tolls should be installed on the Dulles Access Road adjacent to Dulles Airport -- a $3 one-way toll to start, plus similar parking taxes at Dulles for both passengers and airport employees. Subsequently, these rates should increase at amounts equal to or greater than the tolls to be paid by DTR users -- which are in effect taxes imposed without approval of the Virginia General Assembly. The original purpose of Dulles Rail was to serve Dulles Airport so, if it is to be built, let's encourage greater use of the train to and from the airport by passengers and employees alike.For the rest of Rob's letter click here.
For those of you who like to think in terms of "real dollars," that $17 toll 30 years from now is equivalent to about a $7 toll today with 3% annual inflation. It's as if you were paying more than three times as much than the current toll in today's dollars.
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