Dulles Toll Road Toll Increases and You
DID YOU KNOW MWAA’s
traffic & revenue consultant forecasts—
- doubling full
one-way tolls on the Dulles Toll Road (DTR) next year?
- . . . tripling tolls
($6.75) within five years?
- . . . nearly
quadrupling tolls (to $8.75) within a decade?
- . . . and making
further huge toll increases until at least 2047 when they will reach $18.75?
And no one—not even Congress
which created MWAA—has the authority to prevent MWAA from making these massive
toll increases under current law.
What do these toll increases mean to the
Dulles Corridor and its residents and employees?
Crippling Regular DTR User Costs
They mean that the cost of
using the DTR for regular toll road users (44 work weeks per year) will increase more than eight-fold from less than $1,000 in 2012 to more than $8,000 in 2050.
·
Even on a real
cost basis, assuming inflation is 2.5% per year, tolls will increase more than
three-fold. Would you pay nearly $8 each way to use the DTR today?
The toll increases will consume nearly half of the future after-tax income growth of weekday Fairfax DTR commuters who earn
the current County average household income ($103K).
- That assumes
Fairfax income growth will be as robust as it has been since 1990 (2.8%/yr.)
and inflation remains at 2.6% of the last two decades.
- That’s money
families won’t be spending on rents/mortgages, education, shopping, medical care, entertainment,
etc.
Do you want to spend half of
your future raises on tolls?
Massive Traffic Diversion to Local Roads
Instead of using the DTR, large numbers of
current and future potential DTR users (from new jobs & residents nearby)
will shift their driving to local roads.
Based on MWAA’s traffic and growth data, we estimate—
- 36K vehicle trips
per day will shift to local roads by 2015, about one-third of those in Reston .
. .
- That number will
more than double by 2030 (73K trips per day) and . . .
- . . . nearly
triple (103K trips per day) by 2050!
Already congested area highways
and local roads will become absolutely gridlocked, costing not only driver's time, but adding to regional environmental damage. On the other hand, the DTR will become "The Highway of the One Percent," driving to work, shop, and play at the speed limit or above.
Reduced Dulles Corridor Economic Growth
The massive increases in
tolls will almost certainly erode forecast economic growth--jobs and population--in the Dulles
Corridor, undercutting Virginia and County expectations for higher tax revenues
to meet growing spending needs. People who won't be able to afford the DTR or are unwilling to pay the exorbitant tolls will find homes and jobs in other areas of Metropolitan Washington.
- Investments in Fairfax County
road improvements, education, parks & recreation, and social programs,
among others will need to be reduced—or property taxes raised--despite a growing
demand for services.
- Other areas of
Metro Washington will gain from the unfulfilled growth along the Dulles Corridor,
including the I-270 technology corridor in Montgomery County.