$17 tolls: Myth or reality?, Fairfax Times, October 7, 2011

In the subject article, Kali Schumitz, Fairfax Times staff writer, reports on the recent 32nd District debate between incumbent Janet Howell and her Republican challenger, Patrick Forrest:

As stakeholders continue to figure out how to pay for the second phase of the Dulles rail project, there has been growing concern from toll road commuters about how much of the project will be paid for with tolls.

Feeding off of that concern, Republican state Senate candidate Patrick Forrest has made the spectre of toll hikes a centerpiece of his campaign to unseat longtime Sen. Janet Howell (D-32nd). He has launched a separate petition website to oppose higher tolls and has posted campaign-style signs near the Dulles Toll Road reading “No $17 Tolls.”

“There is something to be said for raising the issue,” Forrest said. “Positive effects come about when politicians feel pressured.”

But Howell and others say it is inaccurate to portray $17 tolls as a reality.

Like MWAA Vice Chairman Tom Davis says, "No one knows what the tolls will be."

BUT, if the current financing agreement stands among MWAA, Loudoun, and Fairfax counties without massive infusions of federal and/or state money (billions, not millions, of dollars) and MWAA plans to pay the $3.5 billion or more debt it will incur to pay for the full construction of the Dulles rail line, the full toll on the Dulles Toll Road will be more than $10 and could be $20-plus within 17 years depending on assumptions on ridership, interest rates, etc.--that's a better than three-fold in increase in "real" or "present value" (PV) terms allowing for inflation.  Even MWAA--which has never OVER-estimated the cost of the rail line--has made this projection.  (See the "without TIFIA"--cheap federal money--in the viewgraph below.)

Dulles Corridor Metrorail Project:  Update on USDOT Process and Proposal, MWAA, July 11, 2011.

Agenda: RCA Reston 2020 Committee Meeting, 7:30PM, October 12, 2011, RCC-Hunters Woods

Agenda: RCA Reston 2020 Meeting, Oct. 12 @ 7:30, RCC--HW

1.   Introductions:  John Hanley and members  (1-2 minutes / person)

2.   R2020 Accomplishments to date:  (brief descriptions)  John Bowman  (15 min.)

·        Task Force Phase 1

·        Fairway Redevelopment

·        Metro Phase 2 / Dulles Toll Road Fiasco

·        Blog

·        Major research papers

·        Interfacing with County officials

3.   “Flipping the Script”  Tammi Petrine  (8 min.)

·        What is this?

·        Why now?

·        How will it work?

4.  Member Comments – Anyone  (open)

5.  Discussion on desire to have comprehensive studies of  ?  subjects

     Everyone  (10 min max.)

6.  Questions – Anyone  (open)

7.  Next steps – Tammi and John H. with members (10 min. condensing

     consensus.)  (lists?)

8.  Conclusion

Parsing Half-truths on Dulles Rail, Phase 1

Earlier this week, several Washington-area newspapers disclosed that construction of Dulles rail Phase 1 was probably behind schedule and over budget in light of newly revealed information.  Most articles focused on a report that that two-thirds of of the Phase 1 contingency fund had been used, yet the construction was only halfway complete.  The Washington Examiner also acquired a copy of a contractor (Dulles Transit Partners--DTP) progress report (which it wrongly characterized as an "audit" in the headline) that suggested Phase 1 could be as much as 188 days behind schedule.  Then, on October 6, MWAA and DTP admitted there would be a delay in completing Phase 1:  MWAA says it will be nine days, DTP says it could be much longer.

Then the fur began to fly.

The Examiner published an editorial beginning, "Metropolitan Washington Airports Authority Chairman Charles Snelling finally admitted that he deliberately misled the public when he stated it was 'beyond dispute' that Dulles Rail was' on time and on budget.' Turns out it is neither -- a fact Snelling and his fellow MWAA Board members knew all along, stripping the last pretenses of transparency and accountability from one of the largest infrastructure projects in the nation."  

While the bulk of the editorial focused on Snelling and MWAA's deception, some of it took shots at the Fairfax County Board of Supervisors, particularly former Chairman (now Congressman) Gerry Connolly and current Chairman Sharon Bulova, including the following paragraph:

Snelling's dissembling is particularly troublesome because Fairfax County taxpayers are responsible for all Phase I cost overruns, which are now approximately $240 million to cover the six-month delay. Taxpayers can mainly thank former Fairfax County Board Chairman Gerry Connolly, who is now a Democratic member of Congress, and current board Chairwoman Sharon Bulova. Snelling's less-than-candid assurances were an attempt to deprive taxpayers of a true accounting of this runaway project before November's county and state elections.

Less than 24 hours later, Fairfax County disseminated a statement denouncing the Examiner editorial, setting the tone with this opening statement: "The Examiner is entitled to its own opinions but not its own facts."  Here's the full text of the County release:

The 10/5/11 Examiner newspaper commentary entitled “Airports authority head lied, and transparency died” contains its own inaccuracies. The Examiner is entitled to its own opinions but not its own facts.

This opinion piece stated “Fairfax County taxpayers are responsible for all Phase I cost overruns, which are now approximately $240 million to cover the six-month delay.”

There is nothing factual about this statement.  This editorial was based on speculation.

The Dulles rail project is very complex, and it remains to be seen whether or not it is completed on time since maintenance of the schedule is dependent on numerous factors, and mitigation measures are already underway to address any potential delays.

But more bothersome are the stated falsehoods about funding responsibilities.

At their June 18, 2007 meeting, the Fairfax County Board of Supervisors authorized a local funding agreement with the Metropolitan Washington Airports Authority (MWAA) and Loudoun County and also authorized expenditure of funds from the Dulles Corridor Phase I Special Improvement Tax District for the construction of the Dulles Corridor Metrorail Project. This agreement committed Fairfax County to funding a percentage of the total cost of construction.

Thus for many years, the funding responsibilities have been transparent: MWAA, Loudoun and Fairfax Counties will pay 4.1, 4.8, and 16.1 percent respectively of the total project cost; the remaining 75 percent comes from the Dulles Toll Road and state and federal funding.

Bottom line: Fairfax County taxpayers would only be responsible for a portion (16.1 percent) of any Phase I cost overruns, and in fact, there are no cost overruns to date.

Fairfax County continues to advocate reductions in project costs and is carefully monitoring the cost structure, start of revenue service and funding obligations. All the partners are working together to ensure that the Dulles Corridor Metrorail Project Phase I moves forward and becomes a reality bringing much needed public transit improvements to Tysons Corner and Reston.

Somewhere in between the Examiner editorial and the County press release lies the basic truth as we are able to discern it at this point.  We don't know the whole truth because both MWAA and County officials so far refused to provide it.  But here is what we do know:

• Snelling knowingly, willingly, and intentionally misled the public--I'd call that "lying"--about the current status of Dulles rail Phase 1 when asked about it by saying it was on time and within budget.  His re-characterization of that statement in the most recent newspaper accounts--that he expected Phase 1 to make up ground in the next two years--was itself a deceptive, post hoc excuse for his earlier statement.  In short, the Examiner has this point pinned down.
• The County statement says, "This editorial was based on speculation."  That is factually incorrect.  The several newspapers that reported on the possible cost overruns and delays in Phase 1 has documentary evidence that this was the case.  Indeed, on the very day the County published its statement, MWAA and DTP were admitting that Phase 1 was behind schedule.  Either the County did not know what was happening or is was intentionally misleading its readership.  Either situation is unacceptable.  
• The County statement says, ". . .  in fact, there are no cost overruns to date."  It is true than no cost overruns have yet been admitted by MWAA or County officials, but that does not mean there have not been cost overruns to date.  Indeed, the excessive use of the contingency fund is a strong indicator of cost overruns and the admitted delays will almost certainly mean cost overruns.  And, with the lack of transparency so far demonstrated by County and Airport authorities, we're not likely to know specifically hos much those overruns are until we get the bill in higher taxes and tolls. 
• The Examiner's statement that Fairfax County taxpayers are responsible for "all" cost overruns for Phase 1 is not true, but county taxpayers--especially those who use the toll road--will likely pay the bulk of the overruns.  The taxpayer portion of any cost overruns will be 16.1% as stated by the County under the current funding agreement.
• The County statement that ""the remaining 75 percent (of the payment for cost overruns) comes from the Dulles Toll Road and state and federal funding" is grossly misleading.  The fact of the matter is that the federal and state funding has been fixed and committed, and that 75% portion of all overruns will be paid by Dulles Toll Road users.  This could add as much as a dollar to tolls, which were already likely to triple or even quadruple in the next five years if Phase 2 proceeds.  Think of $7-$10 full tolls in 2016--before Phase 2 is completed.  
• The County's statement highlights its decision on June 18, 2007, to agree to the current funding arrangement as defining the shares of the participants.  It made that agreement (with MWAA and Loudoun County) knowing then (indeed, the agreement was driven and necessitated by) that the federal and Virginia governments had no intention of contributing further funding to either Phase 1 or Phase 2 of Dulles rail.  The agreement sticks Dulles Toll Road users with 75% of all new costs for Dulles Metrorail and, based on the last official MWAA allocation of costs, 56% of the total cost of the line.  This is exactly why toll road users may expect tolls growing to $10, $15, $20, and more in the decades ahead.  Yet, to this writer's knowledge, none of the partners--MWAA, Fairfax, or Loudoun--held public hearings disclosing the terms of the draft agreement before they signed it.  More than any other cynical part of this financial catastrophe, this shows the callous disregard of both elected and appointed officials for the constituents they are suppose to be serving.  (I challenge any of these groups to identify a public hearing in which this agreement was the topic.)  They all ought to be kicked out of office.

MWAA Admits Dulles Rail Phase 1 Is Behind Schedule

Having been "outed" in several Washington area newspapers as noted in this Reston 2020 post, the MWAA Board of Directors and their Dulles Transit Partnership (DTP--Bechtel, et al) finally admitted on October 6 that construction of Phase 1 of Dulles rail is behind schedule.

How much of a delay will they admit to?  NINE DAYS!  This despite a DTP progress report in July that said Phase 1 was as much as 188 days (six months-plus) behind schedule according to the Washington Examiner.

This Washington Business Journal article by Tucker Echols highlights this and other conflicts between MWAA and DTP.  It begins:

Officials with the Metropolitan Washington Airports Authority, which is supervising construction of the Metrorail extension to Dulles International Airport, said Wednesday that the project’s completion date has been delayed. That confirms something that has been assumed for some time.

Still at issue is the length of the delay, The Washington Post reported. The airports authority said Wednesday that completion would be pushed back nine days, from July 31, 2013, to Aug. 9, 2013. The lead contractor, Dulles Transit Partners, is less optimistic. It estimated in a progress report last month that the delay could reach six months.

The varied delay estimates highlight a strain between MWAA and its contractor. . . .

For the rest of this article, click here.

Low-speed Vehicles on Pathways in Reston's Future?

The following is the final paragraph of the summary of a 32-page AARP "Insight on the Issues" report about accommodating low-speed vehicles (LSVs) in America's communities: 

Well-designed networks for LSVs and golf carts could help fill a gap in the existing array of transportation options (for seniors and handicapped).  They provide a convenient way for people to travel farther and faster than they would on foot or a bicycle, without having to use a car.  Nonetheless, community planners, law enforcement officials, local and state policy makers, and users of these vehicles should not lose sight of the fact that these vehicles are much less safe to ride in than passenger cars.  With proper planning, infrastructure design, public education, regulation, and enforcement, communities can safely accommodate LSVs and golf carts and improve the quality of life for residents of all ages.

If Reston is to become a community for all ages--as is being pursued by Supervisor Hudgins' "Aging in Reston" initiative--do the capabilities and policies that allow LSVs exist or need to be created?  I'm sure there is much to learn about the pros, cons, and "how to's" of creating and supporting a safe system for LSVs to operate in Reston.  The best time to start coming to grips with those issues may be now.

For the complete AARP report, click here.  (The link is a large PDF file--5.5 MB.)

Is Dulles Metrorail Phase 1 Over Budget & Behind Schedule?

Articles over the weekend in two Washington papers, including a major front-page article in the Washington Post, point to recent information that Phase 1 of the Dulles Metrorail line to Wiehle is over budget and behind schedule despite recent official statements to the contrary.

The Washington Post article by Dana Hedgpeth, "Wary eyes on Dulles rail project’s bottom line"  highlights that the project has used more than 70% of its contingency fund although it's only about half way through its construction schedule.  The article begins:

 The Metrorail extension through Tysons Corner has burned through more than 70 percent of its contingency fund. With two years of construction remaining, the jurisdictions paying for the line — and Dulles Toll Road drivers — could be on the hook for millions in possible cost overruns, transportation experts say.

The project, the first phase of Metrorail’s extension to Dulles International Airport and Loudoun County, began with $312.3 million allotted for unforeseen expenses two years ago. As of June, that fund had dwindled to $89.7 million.

That shrinkage feeds doubts about whether managers will be able to finish the project on time and on budget. . . .

The Saturday Washington Examiner article by Liz Esseley notes the same apparent early overuse of the Phase 1 contingency fund, but also reports "Audit: Dulles rail 6 months behind schedule."  While the report is not actually an audit, but the project manager's periodic progress report, it states the project is 188 days behind schedule.  Project officials almost certainly tried to limit the period over schedule in their reporting within reasonable bounds, but the delay is more likely to be longer than that.  The article reports:

Construction of the $7 billion Dulles Metro rail is as much as six months behind schedule despite public claims by officials in charge of the project that it is "on time, on budget."

The delay means the first phase of the Silver Line, which will eventually run to Washington Dulles International Airport, would open in June 2014 instead of late 2013, as promised. Officials declined to offer an estimate of the delay's cost, but construction averages $40 million a month.

In both articles, both MWAA and county officials minimize their concern about the likelihood of cost overruns or delayed delivery--they're watching it closely!--but none point to any specific management effort to prevent overruns and delays.   And, of course, three-quarters of any additional costs will be absorbed by Dulles Toll Road users while only one-quarter would be absorbed by the counties and MWAA under the current funding arrangement for the line's construction.

Here's how MWAA Board Chairman Snelling has reportedly handled the situation according to the Examiner:

The Metropolitan Washington Airports Authority, which manages the project, at first denied there was any delay after questions about the construction schedule were raised by auditors in Fairfax County, which is paying for part of the project. Authority Chairman Charles Snelling said it was "beyond dispute" that the project is "on time, on budget."

But Snelling later admitted that the authority had been warned by managers that the project was behind schedule. He said he hadn't acknowledged the delay publicly because he believed the authority and contractor would be able to make up the lost time over the last two years of construction. "They've been managing around the problems," Snelling said.

In short, he lied because it was convenient and he didn't think he'd be caught.  This is "transparency" and "integrity" as practiced by the MWAA Board of Directors.  And, by the way, the usually loquacious Tom Davis, Vice Chairman of the Board and former area Congressman, seems to have disappeared.  What does he have to say about Phase 1 and even Phase 2 costs?

Another take on this development is the disinterest expressed by Fairfax Board Chairman Sharon Bulova.   WaPo reports Bulova commented “I’m not losing any sleep yet.”   Why should she lose sleep?  Toll road users will pick up 75% of the added tab while Fairfax County absorbs 16.1%.

Using the seemingly conservative monthly cost of construction reported by the Examiner--$40 million--a six-month delay would add nearly a quarter-billion dollars to Phase 1's total cost.  This would mean a better than 12% addition to the period of construction and add nearly ten percent to the cost of the line, raising its price to three billion dollars.

With toll road users paying three-quarters of the extra quarter-billion price, tolls could quickly rise by up to ten percent above current MWAA projections for the full Dulles toll five years from now.  In July, MWAA put fares between $4.50-$9.00 in 2016 as Dulles line Phase 2 construction begins.  (Since the lower toll rate is based on the availability of federal TIFIA financing, which simply isn't going to happen according to US government officials, the higher estimate appears more realistic at this time.)  At an extra $.25-$1.00 per trip for Phase 1, Reston commuters would need to ADD $1,300 to $3,500 to their annual commuting budget by 2016 if they travel through the main toll plaza.