Economic Impact of Casinos on Home Prices: Literature Survey and Issue Analysis

The following is a major excerpt of the introduction and summary of a major research paper prepared by the National Association of Realtors (NAR) regarding the economic impact of casinos on home prices. The highlights throughout this post are by Reston 20/20.

The baseline conclusion is that adding casinos to a community generally lower the value of homes.

• The decline in home property values is most pronounced in the area immediately around the casino.
• The decline in home values is more pronounced in high-density areas--such as along the Silver Line in Tysons and Reston.  Depressed, rural areas actually often experience home value increases from the introduction of a casino.
• With most of its patronage coming from locals, a casino largely just takes retail business (plus lost wagers) from local businesses and residents.

The bottom line is that the introduction of a casino in Reston or Tysons will likely reduce real estate values nearby resulting in less property tax revenue and requiring higher property tax rates county-wide.

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Economic Impact of Casinos on Home Prices

Literature Survey and Issue Analysis

NAR Research

 

Introduction and Summary

This paper summarizes the key issues associated with casino gambling, focusing primarily on the impacts of casinos on home values. In general, externalities of congestion and other social costs appear to have a negative impact on home values in the immediate area of a casino. The other impacts from the introduction of casino gambling to a community generally vary, depending on population, urban/rural location, and mix of patrons. The literature on the economic impacts of casinos is voluminous; there continues to be substantial disagreement on the measurement of costs, benefits, and impacts from gaming.

The impact of any specific casino proposal appears to be strongly driven by site-specific conditions. Accordingly, this paper outlines a number of important issues for consideration in evaluating the impact of a casino on housing and the community. The paper has been prepared in conjunction with the REALTOR® Association of Pioneer Valley and makes reference to the proposed casino for Springfield, Massachusetts. The conclusions are preliminary given ongoing disagreements concerning costs and benefits but do outline important issues for consideration in analyzing the desirability of a casino proposal.

As is the case with other types of commercial or industrial properties, the siting of a casino produces externalities producing positive and negative impacts on residential property values.  Las Vegas is reported as a clear case of destination casinos—a situation where casinos have brought long-term prosperity to an area. Some other cases of casinos with a lesser degree of success as destination casinos are reported in the gambling literature. However, the impact of casinos on the surrounding communities in many cases has been evaluated as minimal or negative--particularly when infrastructure and social costs are considered.

• Casinos are likely to have negative impacts on nearby home values. Commercial properties—such as casinos, shopping centers, and infrastructure projects-- can produce both positive and negative externalities. The positive externalities such as enhanced amenities and benefits need to be evaluated in relation to the negative externalities such as increased congestion, traffic, noise, etc. The overall impacts are site specific, generally negative near the casino.

 • A casino drawing most of its patrons from outside the local area can have positive impacts on government tax revenues and the local economy. The key issue is whether a casino is similar to a restaurant (attracting money from the surrounding area by serving local patrons) or a factory (bringing in money from outside the local area by exporting products—in this case gaming services as a destination casino).

• In the case of Springfield, Massachusetts, a significantly level of sustained patronage as a destination casino appears unlikely given the saturation of gaming venues in the New England and New York region (e.g., Foxwoods, Mohegan Sun, Twin River Casinos, Newport Grand Jai Alai, casino cruise ships, race tracks, possible additional casinos in New Hampshire and Connecticut, and a variety of other gambling opportunities).

• Indian casinos in very rural areas are frequently cited as generating significant local economic benefits, largely due to the depressed nature of the local economy. This has not generally been the case for urban casinos.

• Distances between casinos appear to be important. Casinos that are close to each other tend to split the available business, reducing profitability. There are a significant number of casinos relatively close to Springfield.

• Casinos generate jobs, but many of the jobs created by the introduction of a casino are reported to be minimal wage/low paying opportunities, with a few experienced gaming professionals filling the management positions.

• Major social costs are frequently mentioned as associated with casinos—e.g., increased bankruptcies, crime, traffic, and congestion among others. These costs are frequently excluded from cost/benefit evaluations due to measurement problems. The inclusion of the social costs along with possibly other negative externalities reduces the net level of economic benefits from a casino or may even turn them negative.

• The impact on home values appears to be unambiguously negative. In the case of Springfield a casino would appear to have a significant negative externalities/nuisance value. The impact of negative externalities can be very significant, ranging in the neighborhood of 4 to 10 percent as outlined in the report and Appendix.

The gambling industry is substantial in size. According to Mallach, in 2008 casinos were operated by 233 Indian tribes in 28 states generating nearly $26 billion in gross gambling revenues, based on information from the National Indian Gaming Association. In addition, 445 commercial casinos and 44 “racinos” (racetrack-based casinos) in 20 different states generated another $39 billion in gambling revenues, according to information from the American Gaming Association 2009.

All gambling is local, and the gambling literature cites a wide variety of economic outcomes and impacts from gambling that appear to vary from jurisdiction to jurisdiction depending on local and site-specific conditions. However, in general the impact of casinos on residential home prices in the vicinity of a casino appears to be negative. The impact on home prices needs to be factored into the evaluation of the impact of the establishment of a casino along with the potential positive impacts—job creation, higher local incomes, and the potential negative impacts—such as social costs and possible increases in crime—in arriving at an overall evaluation of the economic impacts of a proposed casino.

We estimate that assessed home values will most likely be negatively impacted by $64 to $128 million from the introduction of a casino into Springfield, although there are many variables that could shift the price impact to be either more or less severe. In addition, pathological gambling could result in social costs of $8.4 million per year, possibly significantly higher. Additional foreclosures could produce costs of $5 million per year. Finally, there would probably be a negative impact on local retail businesses as local consumer expenditures were diverted to some degree to casino gaming, and a need for additional government expenditures to provide needed public services (police, fire, medical, etc.).

 . . . .

The Impact of a Casino on Home Prices in the Vicinity of the Casino is Generally Negative.

Site-specific studies show the negative impact of casinos on home prices. The studies work with a variety of databases, using several types of approaches including input/output models and econometric analyses.

Henderson, Nevada: Clauretie et. al. analyzed the effects that the location of casinos has had on residential property values in Henderson, Nevada, a town located approximately ten miles from the Las Vegas “strip”.  The town has a variety of gaming establishments of various sizes located close to residential areas, varying from taverns with a few slot machines to large casinos with live table games. The patrons of the suburban casinos are generally area residents rather than tourists. Many of the gaming facilities are located in close proximity to residential developments. The authors used home price transaction information to estimate the effect that casinos have had on residential home values.

• A price/distance regression analysis examined the impact on home values from the siting of a casino, allowing for variables such as distance from the casino, and physical and neighborhood characteristics.

The study found that casinos were a nuisance that negatively impacted nearby residential properties within one mile. In the case of large casinos, the value of each home fell by 4.6%.5 In illustrating the impact of a casino, the authors estimated that with 400 residential properties located within a mile of a proposed casino with an average value of $200,000, a large casino would have a possible negative aggregate impact of $3.7 million, exclusive of any other costs or benefits typically cited in conjunction with the siting of a casino. They noted that the “lights, noise, and traffic that accompany casino operations” were a negative associated with casino operations. For a somewhat larger city, such as Springfield, the immediate negative impact would probably be larger.

Indian Casinos, Nationwide: Baxandall and Sacerdote6 used a database covering 365 Indian casinos located in 156 different counties in 26 separate states to examine the county-level impacts of an Indian-owned casino. One problem with the study was that the level of analysis was at the county rather than the Census tract level, so they obtained mixed conclusions. Median home prices in counties with casinos were approximately 2 percent higher than those in non-casino counties. However, this effect appears to have been bifurcated by county size. Casinos appear to have brought increased prosperity to low-population, rural counties, resulting in home price increases—probably due to rising incomes in depressed areas. However, in comparisons among high-population/urban counties with and without casinos, the authors found no difference in home price changes. Recognizing the level of negative ambience around a casino, this would seem to imply a negative price impact of a casino on nearby properties.

Indiana Riverboat Casinos: Landers presented regression estimates of changes in housing values around Indiana’s ten riverboat casinos.7 The data used covered the time period 1990 to 2000, with comparisons focused on the differences between census tracts with and without casinos. He concluded that casinos had a negative impact on the annual growth rates in housing values during the 1990s in the range of .5 to 2.1 percent. Even under circumstances of an extremely tight housing supply, the negative price impacts of casinos were not eliminated.

Nationwide Analysis: Michael Wenz performed an econometric analysis of the net impact of casinos on residential property values, using data on 358 casinos operating in 28 states, excluding Nevada.  The study was subject to several limitations, which raise questions about the accuracy of the conclusions. First, the home price variable was based on respondents’ estimates of how much the property would sell for if it were for sale; whether a homeowner can accurately estimate the market is debatable. Second, Wenz noted that there is substantial heterogeneity across casinos, markets, and local economies, indicating that some of the estimates may have been due to market differences.

According to Wenz, there was a positive 2 percent effect on house values for homes in the area of a casino, and positive spillover effects to neighboring in-state regions. He noted that “A particularly important finding for policy makers is that the benefits associated with a casino depend inversely on population density. Casinos are more likely to create net benefits in areas where population density is low.”

In the case of low density areas, it appears based on the Wenz study that gambling has brought prosperity, rising incomes, and possibly higher home prices. Wenz has noted the inapplicability of the conclusion to urban areas.  Accordingly, the Wenz study seems more relevant to the impacts on incomes in rural areas (gaming appears to have a positive impact where not a lot else is happening and day trippers are bringing some money) rather than the impact of gaming on home prices.

Foxwoods Resort Casino: Carsteensen et.al. reported that the Foxwoods Resort Casino has had a positive impact on property values. 9 The analysis of the impact of the Foxwoods Resort Casino in Connecticut on property values in adjacent towns (Ledyard, North Stonington, Preston) was determined by comparing the housing price trends in the towns with the trend in a broader geographic area (Hartford Labor Market Area--LMA). In comparing growth rates in home prices over the time period 1990-1999 for properties sold in the three towns adjacent to Foxwoods in comparison to growth rates in the Hartford LMA, the properties adjacent to Foxwoods experienced a sales price growth rate that averaged 0.57% annually, compared to a negative 1.16% annual growth rate for the Hartford LMA during the same time period. The use of area level rather than census tract level data shows the impact of a casino on incomes more than on housing prices.

Foxwoods is frequently cited as a major success story for the introduction of gaming operations in a rural area. It appears that as local employment and incomes increased, so did home values. However, the impact on home values prices was for the area; the analysis does not measure the impact on home prices based on location relative to the casino.  The Foxwoods luster has now dimmed. Slot machine play has been off 12 percent year over year, and the casino management warned of impending layoffs in March 2013. The focus has been on debt restructuring and reorganization. Foxwoods appears to have suffered from a slow economy, an increase in the number of available casinos, and financial problems.

Windsor, Ontario in the 1990s was an economically depressed area: a city of 200,000 people with population growth below the Canadian average and an unemployment rate 3 percent above average. Chadwick Jeffery examined home price behavior resulting from the announcement of the proposed development of a casino.  Prices fell for approximately one year near the proposed casino site after announcement of the proposed development, presumably people selling out and moving away due to potential location of the casino. This is illustrative of the potential negative impact on home values from a casino. Subsequently, prices began to rise a year after the determination of the casino site, apparently with a view towards commercialization of the properties.

Las Vegas: As a destination site, Las Vegas has been noted as a gambling success. Christopher Miller examined the impact of casinos on home prices in Las Vegas.  He concludes that home prices and incomes are correlated, with an upward trend. What he appears to have demonstrated is that gambling produces major advantages for the Las Vegas economy: There is a relationship between consumer payrolls and employment, home prices, home sales.

Detroit (Retail Property): Wiley and Walker 13 performed a regression analysis to analyze the effects of casinos on retail property values in the Detroit urban area. They reported that casinos had a significantly positive influence on retail property values. The effect was stronger within a 5-mile radius of the casinos, suggesting that casinos had a complementary, rather than substitution, effect on other businesses. Bringing a casino to Detroit brought some increase in spending power to a very depressed area. In some cases, a casino facilitates growth in the retail sector, and in other cases pulls money out of retail and into the casino.

Conclusions: In depressed rural areas a casino may help the economy by bringing in some money from day trippers. However, in general casinos appear to have a negative impact on home prices in the vicinity of the casino. The effect of casinos on commercial property is mixed: in two cases—Detroit and Windsor—were positive. However, there are references in the literature to decreased levels of retail spending from what it would otherwise have been when the casino patrons are predominantly local. In such cases, a casino could have a negative impact on local retail operations and property values.

Obviously, Las Vegas could be cited as a commercial property success. Other studies have suggested that the degree to which casinos have a favorable overall impact on commercial property is dependent on the patron mix. If a casino draws heavily from local areas, buying power may be siphoned from local establishments to the casino. However, if the bulk of patrons are from outside the local area, then additional buying power drawn to the region may flow over to other commercial businesses. Given the growth of casino locations, the probability of bringing dollars into the region on a consistent and extended basis seems to have declined. For example, Foxwoods—previously cited as a major success—has had financial difficulties.