Now they tell us: BRT is more cost-effective than rail for TOD!

Looks like we could have saved $5 billion or more (as many of us already suspected) by building a bus rapid transit (BRT) system down the Dulles Corridor, not to mention outrageous Dulles Toll Road rate increases to come.

The Institute for Transportation & Development Policy (ITDP) has just issued a major study that, among other things, highlights that there is little or no advantage to spending big bucks on rail if your goal is to stimulate economic development in transit-oriented development (TOD) areas.

Here's what Atlantic Cities has to say about the report:

Today, the Institute for Transportation and Development Policy released a report showing that bus-rapid transit can play a huge role in stimulating economic development — often leveraging more investment than rail projects do. Previous research already suggested as much, but the impact documented in the ITDP report is still eye-catching. . .

So what's the lesson here? Well, the basic takeaway is that cities seeking TOD investments should build that desire around a strong plan for government intervention first and foremost, then identify a corridor with great potential as a secondary act. The type or quality of the transit system itself need only be a third consideration; indeed, ITDP concludes that light rail, BRT, and streetcars "all led to similar TOD investment outcomes under similar conditions."

In other words, if your goal is economic development, then focusing on transit is besides the point.

But as usual the broader lesson is more complicated. The idea that TOD doesn't always require the T can be encouraging, since it frees up cities to invest in urban corridors for their own sake. But it's also concerning, because even if transit quality doesn't matter for TOD purposes, it certainly matters for mobility. Cities that see transit systems as a mere pretext for economic development are bound for some sort of disappointment, no matter the monetary gain.

There is no doubt that the Dulles Corridor has experienced HEAVY government intervention with the two new Comprehensive Plans for Tysons and the Corridor.  Moreover, the area has major potential.

Apparently, however, spending billions more to put in commuter rail will have little impact on the economic success of Tysons or the Reston as TOD areas.  BRT would probably have worked as well (as is outlined in the current Dulles Corridor Comprehensive Plan).  But of course, our Loudoun and Fairfax county governments picked the less cost-effective approach!

Click here to download the full ITDP report (161 pp).