Who will ride Metrorail when it arrives in Reston?

Yesterday's Washington Post carries an article by Dana Hedgpeth and Scott Clement entitled, "Metro’s new Silver Line could face challenge in attracting Northern Virginia riders."  It reports that WMATA expects 25,000 average daily ridership, 15,000 of whom will be new riders.  Here's how WaPo puts that in context:

Metro expects the new Silver Line to attract 25,000 new passenger trips on an average weekday in the first year. Of those, 15,000 will be people who may now drive, and 10,000 of those will be current Orange Line riders who will switch to the Silver Line, according to Metro. By comparison, Metro’s busiest line — the Red Line —carries roughly 288,000 passenger trips on an average weekday, according to an analysis of data from Metro. The Green Line is the lightest in passenger traffic, with an average of nearly 165,000 leaving from its stations, including transfer points.

So, for $3 billion, the Silver Line will add about one-sixth the ridership of the current WORST-performing line in the Metrorail network and one-seventh the ridership of its best-performing line.  For comparison, the Dulles Toll Road (DTR) handles about 200,000 autos--virtually all with one person each--each weekday.

I had an inquiry about prospective Reston ridership on the new line a few weeks ago.  Here is what I said:

In general, I think most of the use of the Silver Line will be people who already use public transit to commute.  There are two categories of people who I would suspect would jump on the new Silver Line connection:

• Fairfax Connector bus transit riders who have been making the commute to West Falls Church and transferring to the Orange Line there.  The Silver Line will save them the transfer, maybe some time (notwithstanding 4 stops in Tysons), and maybe some money.

• People who have been driving to the Vienna Orange Line station to commute by Metrorail.  There are a number of people who do so, and the Wiehle station will save them a whole lot of time and some gas money. 

So far, I am skeptical that people who now commute by car will change their habits--notwithstanding the WMATA report on its survey of potential rail users.  I certainly haven't had anyone tell me they plan to switch from auto commuting to Metro when it arrives at the end of the year.  In large part, that is because their destination is not near a Metro station.  It is also a function of commuting time and possibly expense (Metro fares vs. destination parking costs). 

I can think of two exceptions to this generalization although I have not direct confirmation of these exceptions:

• People who work at Tysons.  It is possible that a number of these Reston residents who now drive to Tysons for work will make the transition to Metrorail to save time and money, but no one has told me that.  They won't be paying the full peak period fare that rail commuters to downtown will and, on any given day, they can avoid the congestion and occasional accidents on the DTR.  

• The small group of people who now live close enough to the Wiehle station to walk there.  There just aren't enough residences near the station now to expect that number to be substantial.  Moreover, as RCA's Reston 2020 Committee has pointed out, access for bicyclists and pedestrians from the south will be very limited--and the County doesn't have much in progress to improve that situation when Wiehle station opens. Please see these links for more information on the inadequate access preparations for the Wiehle station opening;

• Wiehle Station Access:  Congestion Ahead
• The Soapstone Connection:  A Bridge to Reston's Future
• Map and Status of Wiehle Metrorail Station Access Improvement Projects

Over the longer term, I suspect two factors will drive a significant transition from auto to rail commuting for Restonians. 

• Escalating DTR tolls, making Metrorail a less expensive alternative to driving for those who have ready access to Metro at both ends of their commute. 

• New station area residential construction that will mean no need to drive or bus to the Silver Line station, just a quick walk to the gate.

Some additional thoughts on that commentary:

• You'd think that Fairfax County would be anxious to make Wiehle station more accessible for prospective rail riders, but their approach to improving walking and biking access, much less auto access via the Soapstone connector, has been absolutely glacial and unresponsive, verging on the incompetent and incomprehensible.  One way to prevent rail usage is to make sure it's difficult for people to get there.  You end up with a self-fulfilling prophecy:  Few use rail because they can't get there conveniently and, because few use rail, there is no reason to make it more convenient.

• Despite WMATA's twisted statistics suggesting increasingly reliable rail performance, Metrorail's record of performance--and delays and accidents--has not been a good one and appears to be getting worse despite management's apparent best intentions.  It will be hard to induce people to leave their autos for this kind of transportation service. 

• Growing ridership on the Silver Line will be a long-term proposition.  
• It will require a growing regional economy--which is uncertain--and residential development in Reston's station areas for starters.  
• It will continue to depend on the balance between driving vs. rail in terms of costs (money, time, irritation).  
• Offsetting even good economic growth will be the trend toward more remote worksites--whether home or somewhere else--that will mean people will simply commute less, maybe "going to the office" once or twice per week. 
• It will depend on more frequent service from Reston--people won't wait 8 minutes for a train in peak periods.  
• Near term, that will depend on adding more rail cars and trains to the Silver Line. 
• More importantly, it will depend on building another route (tunnel) under the Potomac to relieve the tremendous congestion of three rail lines trying to use the Rosslyn tunnel. 

What are your thoughts on the the opening of the Silver Line in Reston?  WIll you use it?  If so, when and why?  If not, what would lead you to change your mind?