Subject: VFOIA Request: Explanation of Forecast Cost Increases of Selected RNAG Projects
Dear Mr. Biesiadny,We have recently completed a comparison of projected costs of proposed RNAG projects with those in the Board of Supervisors approved in its transportation project priorities, 2014-2020. Most of the common projects have similar project cost estimates, subject to inflation at 2%-3% per year since 2014 (& assuming the costs in that approved list actually reflect 2013 dollars).Two major Reston station area serving projects, however, show staggering cost increases between the approval of the TPP and the latest presentation of proposed RNAG projects:
- Soapstone Extension DTR Overpass: For reasons we cannot discern, the projected cost of this project has risen from $91.75MM in 2014 to $170MM in 2016, an 85% increase.
- Fairfax County Parkway Widening: While the 2014 TPP projection put the cost of widening the entire 35-mile parkway at $396MM, only 2.5 miles of that parkway—DTR to West Ox Road—remotely serves Reston’s station areas. A proportional cost of that section (2.5/35) would put the 2014 cost at $28.3MM, yet RNAG projects the cost of that 2.5 mile widening to serve Reston at $80MM, a 183% increase in the cost.
VFOIA Information Request: Please provide a detailed explanation of the causes of the major cost increases and why those costs should be laid on to Reston station areas for funding considerations.Thank you in advance for your explanation.Sincerely,Terry Maynard, Co-Chair
Reston 20/20 Committee
UPDATE: We went back and looked at the RMAG Final Report in 2009 to get a sense of the projected cost of the Soapstone Connector then. The RMAG report states, "By far the most expensive item in the recommended roadway program is the construction of the
Soapstone Connector over the DIAAH, with a total estimated cost of $32 million for
bridge and an additional $10 million for other roadway construction . . . ." That's $42 million. Inflated at 3%/year, that total would be about $55 million in 2016 dollars, but RNAG now puts the cost of the bridge and approaches at $170 million. It is clear that FCDOT has no reasonable way for accurately forecasting the cost of major transportation projects.
